Source: Zman Yisrael (Israel Time)

By Pinhas Inbari

Against the backdrop of the drama in the Strait of Hormuz, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) issued, last Thursday (July 9), a presidential decree calling for general elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, set for November 28, 2026.

There are more question marks than exclamation points regarding the feasibility of Palestinian Legislative Council elections under current conditions. But the decree also opens a door, for the first time, for Hamas to take part in elections in the West Bank.

Abu Mazen has signed a decree calling for elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council. There are more question marks than exclamation points about whether elections are feasible under current conditions — but this is also the first opening for Hamas to take part in elections in the West Bank.

The decree came immediately after progress was made in the Cairo talks on the “day after” in Gaza, when Hamas's emergency committee announced its own dissolution, and after Hamas, on its official website, called on the expert committee of U.S. President Donald Trump's peace council to come to Gaza.

The question is whether the Palestinian Authority is coordinating with the processes underway in Cairo, or whether, on the contrary, its moves are designed to torpedo the Cairo talks.

Why does this question arise? Because the Palestinian Authority was not invited to Cairo, and the delegation representing the Palestinians there is a Hamas delegation.

If that is so, Ramallah's interest is not to grant Hamas any legitimacy whatsoever to represent the Palestinians. In the PA's view, representation of the Palestinians belongs exclusively to the PLO. But in Cairo a new legitimacy is being built for Hamas, and the PLO in Ramallah must respond. Facing the developments in Cairo, the PLO must present itself as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinians — and as the body that will itself run the elections, not any committee, and certainly not Hamas.

According to senior sources in Ramallah, contacts are underway between Fatah and Hamas over running on a joint list, in order to avoid clashes and tension between the two organizations, if and when elections actually take place. The senior figure most often mentioned as heir to Abu Mazen, Marwan Barghouti, has already announced that he is preparing for the elections. Barghouti grew very close to Hamas in prison, and the entire Barghouti clan has undergone a process of radicalization toward Hamas and the radical organizations.

Jerusalem — the old, recurring excuse

But the question of who will run the elections in Gaza — the Palestinian Authority, the peace council's committee, or Hamas — is not the only problem. Abu Mazen's announcement emphasized that the elections will also be held in Jerusalem, or perhaps even primarily in Jerusalem.

Here, fierce Israeli opposition can be expected, to the point of suspicion that Abu Mazen's announcement is more a response to pressure from Europe and the Arab world than a genuine desire to bring about reform in the Palestinian Authority.

Abu Mazen's announcement emphasized that the elections will also be held in Jerusalem — perhaps even primarily there. Fierce Israeli opposition can be expected here, to the point of suspicion that the announcement is more a response to pressure from Europe and the Arab world than a genuine will to bring about reform in the Authority.

Arab commentators explained that the whole Jerusalem issue is meant to embarrass Israel, and that it will serve as leverage in the hands of Europe — which has distanced itself from Israel over Jewish terrorism — to pressure Israel. On the other hand, the Palestinian elections, if they take place, will come after the Israeli elections, if those take place, so that the question of East Jerusalem's participation in the vote will stand as a test for Israel's new government, if one is formed, immediately upon its establishment.

It should be assessed that if the Palestinian elections do move toward actually being held, there will be pressure on Abu Mazen to give up on Jerusalem, or to find a face-saving formula for holding the “Jerusalem” vote outside Jerusalem — not necessarily to make things easier for Israel, but because the Arab world, too, does not accept exclusive Palestinian control over Jerusalem. I will address that in a separate piece.

It is worth recalling that the Jerusalem issue lay at the root of the rift between Europe and Abu Mazen, after he personally promised German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, in 2019, that he would renew the Palestinian Authority's legitimacy through general elections. But at the last moment, in April 2021, Abu Mazen postponed them on the pretext of Jerusalem, after Palestinians had actually become swept up in enthusiasm over the prospect of elections. Europe was not convinced, and in response halted its regular funding of the Palestinian Authority's budget.

In a conversation with a senior Palestinian official, he assessed that the elections will not be held, because of Jerusalem — but he also explained Abu Mazen's real motives. According to him, what Abu Mazen truly wants is to advance his son, Yasser, to the position of his successor. That is why he split the parliamentary elections from the presidential elections, the latter set tentatively, without a specific date, for the first quarter of 2027 — because Yasser is not yet ripe for the presidency.

Abu Mazen's line is to prevent Fatah from being swept into a renewal of terrorism as a response to Jewish terrorism, so that Fatah can present itself as the party of governance once pressure begins on Israel to withdraw from the West Bank.

Abu Mazen's line is to prevent the Fatah organization from being swept into a renewal of terrorism as a response to Jewish terrorism — so that the organization can present itself as the party of governance once pressure begins on Israel to withdraw from the West Bank.

This links the move to the diplomacy underway in Gaza and Lebanon, and to the attempt to turn Hamas and Hezbollah into political parties operating within a political track. The decree on holding elections is the path laid out for Hamas to advance along, and this is the connection between Abu Mazen's announcement and the talks on the “day after” in Cairo.

To understand this, one needs to compare the two versions of the presidential election decrees. The original decree, from January 15, 2021, made participation in the elections conditional on recognition of the Oslo Accords. The updated decree drops that condition, and instead grounds the legitimacy of the elections in the Algiers Declaration of Independence from November 1988, which preceded Oslo.

It should be noted that Hamas has officially announced it will not take part in the elections if they are based on the Oslo Accords. Is there a connection between Hamas's condition and the wording of Abu Mazen's decree? Adding to this question is Hamas's announcement that it is inviting the expert committee of President Trump's peace council to come to Gaza. Are there moves underway that the eye does not see? Are Qatar and Turkey acting to assist Trump, in order to gain access not only to Gaza, but to the West Bank as well?

The West Bank is no given, either

The impression that the problems lie only with the Jerusalem issue is not accurate. Questions also arise such as who will run the elections in Gaza, whether it is even possible to administer elections there at all, and — in a West Bank saturated with checkpoints and Jewish terrorism — whether holding elections there can be taken for granted either.

The current [Israeli] government will do everything in its power to prevent these elections, but they will also pose a major challenge to the next government, should one be formed — since the Palestinian issue is in any case not slated to top the national agenda, and rightly so.

The impression that the problems lie only with the Jerusalem issue is not accurate. Questions also arise such as who will run the elections in Gaza, whether it is even possible to administer elections there at all, and — in a West Bank saturated with checkpoints and Jewish terrorism — whether holding elections there can be taken for granted.

This, then, is not the first time Abu Mazen has announced new elections without intending to actually hold them. The last time, the elections fell through over Jerusalem; this time, the question of representation in Gaza and the winds of war blowing through the West Bank have been added to the mix.

Pinchas Inbari is a senior Middle East researcher, journalist, author, screenwriter and poet. He authored the entries on the Palestinians for the New Hebrew Encyclopedia, and for many years served as a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and State Affairs. He has written scholarly books on the Palestinian problem, and a linguistic study of the roots of the Hebrew language, “The Story of the Root.” The novels he co-authored with his wife Aviva are “On the Back of a Storm,” about the challenges facing Christian communities in the Western Galilee under the British Mandate, confronting radical Islam and the status of women; and “Keeper of the Underworld,” which deals with corruption in Israel.