Doha Instead of Mecca: The Muslim Brotherhood’s New Axis, with Iran in the Background, Against Saudi Arabia Ahead of Its Deal with Israel
Source: Zman Yisrael (Israel Time)
By Pinhas Inbari
As Israel heads toward fateful elections, all attention is naturally focused on the domestic arena. But in truth, regional and even global processes are unfolding beneath the surface – processes that will not allow the outgoing government to return in its current composition.
Because of demands from the world, Israel will be forced to change course – perhaps even dramatically – whether willingly or under pressure. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is aware of this, and has offered a chilling forecast: to escape the pressures on it, Israel will have to switch to a crypto economy.
Because of demands from the world, Israel will be forced to change course – perhaps even dramatically. Netanyahu is aware of this, and has offered a chilling forecast: to escape the pressures, Israel will have to switch to a crypto economy.
US President Donald Trump’s support for Netanyahu does not come free. Netanyahu has made commitments to American needs, which will become clear after the elections. These are not necessarily a joint war against Iran – or rather, a joint war would be a by-product of the regional upheavals.
From the Mecca Charter to the Badr Alliance
A hint of what is to come can be found in the new regional alignment. The Mecca Charter, which in August bound Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan in a mutual defense pact, still exists on paper. In practice, however, it is being replaced by a new alliance signed this past weekend in Doha between Turkey, Pakistan, Qatar and Indonesia – the “Badr” alliance. Iran is not a signatory, but it hovers over it: on the eve of the signing, Pakistan’s interior minister and army chief hurried to Iran for talks. They skipped Saudi Arabia.
Officially, the alliance deals with cooperation in the defense industry, and the name “Badr” was explained as meaning “full moon” – a symbol of the four countries complementing one another. But the name is no coincidence. It is the name of the battle the Prophet Muhammad waged against pagan Mecca at the dawn of Islam. Whereas the Mecca Charter placed Saudi Arabia at the axis of the alliance, the name “Badr” turns things upside down: Mecca is now the enemy – worse, it has reverted to the days of unbelief before it embraced Islam.
In other words, Doha is replacing Mecca. Qatar and Turkey, the standard-bearers of the Muslim Brotherhood, are building an alternative axis, with Iran in the background – an axis aimed against Saudi Arabia as it moves toward its agreement with Israel.
With the Badr alliance in place of the Mecca Charter, Doha is replacing Mecca. Qatar and Turkey, the standard-bearers of the Muslim Brotherhood, are building an alternative axis, with Iran in the background – aimed against Saudi Arabia ahead of its agreement with Israel.
Why, suddenly, instead of an alliance with Mecca at its center, has an alliance emerged in which Mecca is the enemy? The message is only implied, but anyone who knows Islam knows how to read the hint correctly.
The reason is that the Badr states understand that the completion of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is expected after the elections – President Trump recently said it is closer than ever.
The Obstacle: Ben Gvir and Smotrich
But completing normalization is impossible with a government that includes Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. For now, Netanyahu is distancing himself only from Ben Gvir, but in light of what is happening with Jewish terrorism, not only can Saudi Arabia not accept such a government – there are also signs of displeasure among the Abraham Accords states.
The Gulf states made their agreements with Israel conditional on the cancellation of all annexation plans. Israel met that condition at the time, but it is not meeting it today, because of Ben Gvir and Smotrich – with whom the sanctions began that could deteriorate into a crypto economy.
Completing normalization is impossible with a government that includes Ben Gvir and Smotrich. In light of Jewish terrorism, not only can Saudi Arabia not accept such a government – there are also signs of displeasure among the Abraham Accords states.
The only way out of this is normalization with Saudi Arabia. Turkey has suffered a double failure: it did not succeed in turning the Mecca Charter, in which it is a partner with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, into a spearhead against Israel, nor did it persuade Egypt to join the charter in order to redirect it from Iran toward Israel. And not only has it failed – it is watching with its own eyes as what it feared most, a Saudi-Israeli alliance, is finally taking shape, even if this is not yet visible, and even if it was delayed by the massacre in the Gaza border communities. On top of that, it is also witnessing the approaching end of the special relationship between Israel and Qatar.
Egypt Steps In
While Egypt rejected Turkey’s efforts to bring it into the Mecca Charter in its anti-Israeli format, it is now – even without a charter – prepared to send troops to defend Saudi Arabia against the Houthis. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi asked parliament to approve the move, stressing that it concerns the defense of Saudi territory and not an attack in Yemen. The vote was postponed, and there are reservations in parliament, because the memory of Egypt’s defeat in Yemen in the days of Gamal Abdel Nasser has not been forgotten – and the Houthis are quick to remind everyone of it.
Israel’s great victory in Iran – which was not translated into diplomatic achievements – is a model for defeating the Houthis, if it is carried out hand in hand with Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s legitimate government, which would provide the ground forces – the very thing that was missing in Iran. Such a move would also bring about reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which is also threatened by the new Badr alliance.
The Energy Route and the Geopolitical Stakes
An alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel carries enormous significance, which is why the world is interested in it: it opens a route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to the Mediterranean, through Israel.
This explains Pakistan’s interest, since India is an integral part of the Israel–Arabian Peninsula alliance; Pakistan is therefore joining the axis that seeks to block it. Indonesia’s role stems from its arms deals with Turkey, its disappointment with Israel for rejecting it from a role in Gaza, and the decline of Israel’s standing from Start-up Nation to Crypto Nation. The post-election Israel will have to bring Indonesia back onto a positive track, and improving Israel’s global prestige and restoring its relations with the United States will help here.
As long as Israel is absent from the picture because of the composition of the current government, Syria is already being promoted as a bypass route, including the Tartus coast. But energy routes cannot be moved from one problematic area, the Strait of Hormuz, to other problematic areas – Iraq and Syria. The Tartus coast is the terminal of Qatar and Turkey. Israel is the terminal of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
That is why Egypt is interested in helping Saudi Arabia – so that it too can become a major energy terminal for the Arabian Peninsula. The truth is that there is enough for everyone, for Israel and for Egypt, and the royalties Jordan would receive could rescue its faltering economy and stabilize it.
But for this to happen, Israel must come to its senses and become a stabilizing regional factor, rather than part of the general anarchy.
Israel, Egypt and Jordan can all become energy terminals, and the royalties could rescue Jordan’s faltering economy. But for this to happen, Israel must come to its senses and become a stabilizing regional factor, not part of the general anarchy.
In this respect, Ofer Winter cannot replace Smotrich, because his emigration plan is the complete opposite of what will be required of Israel in the days after the elections.
Let us hope this will be the last election campaign that sends Israel spinning with slogans, spin, scare tactics and baseless illusions.
And a redeemer shall come to the voter.
Pinhas Inbari is a senior Middle East researcher, journalist, author, screenwriter and poet. He wrote the entries on the Palestinians in the New Hebrew Encyclopedia and served for many years as a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He has written non-fiction books on the Palestinian issue, and a linguistics book on the roots of the Hebrew language, “Sippur Shoresh” (The Story of a Root). The novels he co-wrote with his wife Aviva are “Al Gav Sufa” (On the Back of a Storm), about the challenges facing the Christian communities of the Western Galilee during the British Mandate in the face of radical Islam and the status of women, and “Shomer HaSheol” (Guardian of Sheol), which deals with Israeli corruption.
