Source: Zman Yisrael (Israel Time), October 2026
Democracy First, Then Palestinian Elections.
By Pinhas Inbari
In the end, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas did what was expected from the start: the elections he had solemnly announced, and celebrated in his speech to the United Nations, were postponed once again. He cancelled the Legislative Council elections scheduled for November 28 and issued a new decree for combined presidential and legislative elections on September 11, 2027.
The postponement is not merely an internal Palestinian affair. Depending on which government is formed in Israel two weeks from now, it could have a profound impact on Israel and on the Middle East as a whole.
A State of Struggle
The bottom line is that the Palestinian Authority is a model of muqawama – struggle. A “state of struggle,” like Bashar Assad’s Syria or Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya, cannot be a democracy, because its guiding value is not the well-being of its citizens but the ideal of war.
If you like, this is also the model of state toward which Israel is marching – and it is no coincidence that the “Kingdom of David” state is likewise eroding its democratic foundations.
A “state of struggle” cannot be a democracy, because its guiding value is not the well-being of its citizens but the ideal of war – a model toward which Israel, too, is marching.
Why Did Abbas Postpone the Elections?
Fundamentally, the entire election process grew out of European pressure to keep the Palestinian Authority relevant to a solution in Gaza. Only last month, in a recorded address to the UN General Assembly, Abbas told the world that the PA had met its commitments, completed its reform plan and would hold elections on November 28. That date was meant to prove the PA worthy of being the recognized government on “the day after.”
Now Abbas explains that Israel is the obstacle. Following a national consultation with the PLO factions, it was agreed that Israeli measures on the ground do not permit the vote to be held on time. Indeed, Israel did not allow the Central Elections Commission to operate in East Jerusalem and Gaza.
Abbas’s deputy, Hussein al-Sheikh, laid the groundwork in a letter to the French foreign minister, stating that the political, security and economic conditions on which the date had been based had not materialized. The factions, for their part, adopted the PFLP’s initiative in Cairo to postpone the vote by a year, and Egypt is expected to host an inclusive national dialogue.
But Jerusalem is a familiar excuse. In 2021, Abbas cancelled the elections for exactly the same reason – the moment Fatah split into rival lists, one of them Mohammed Dahlan’s. Even then, the heads of Egyptian and Jordanian intelligence tried to talk him out of elections, fearing a Hamas victory. This time, too, the real reason lies within Fatah itself.
Jerusalem is a familiar excuse. In 2021, Abbas cancelled the elections for exactly the same reason, when Fatah split into rival lists. This time, too, the real reason lies within Fatah itself.
Ramallah understands that Fatah is incapable of uniting, while Dahlan – Abbas’s longtime rival, expelled from the movement in 2011 and based in the United Arab Emirates – is building a coalition with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
About a month ago, a senior Hamas delegation met in Beirut with a delegation from Dahlan’s Reform Current, headed by Mahmoud Issa (al-Lino), Dahlan’s security chief in Lebanon’s refugee camps. The two sides called for the broadest possible national coalition ahead of the elections. A divided Fatah facing a bloc of Dahlan and the Islamists – this was a risk the Muqata’a was unwilling to take. Little wonder that Dahlan’s faction was quick to condemn the postponement.
The bloc Dahlan has formed with Hamas and the Islamists illustrates why an entity of struggle cannot hold elections.
Even within the system, not everyone was comfortable with the move. According to Al-Sharq TV, the head of the Central Elections Commission, Hanna Nasser, had reservations about the postponement request, fearing it would damage the credibility of the process. Mustafa Barghouti, head of the Palestinian National Initiative, called the postponement regrettable and said that announcing elections without internal dialogue had been a grave mistake in the first place. Indeed, Abbas announced elections to please the world, not because the PA was ready for them.
Ramallah understands that Fatah is incapable of uniting, while Dahlan, Abbas’s longtime rival, is building a coalition with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
The Paradox
Paradoxically, if the Palestinians’ interests were detached from those of the wider Arab world, they would be hoping for a victory of the Right in Israel. A right-wing government would put Israel on the South African track, and a Palestinian state would be imposed on it from outside. One does not need a telescope to see that these processes have already begun.
Yet in light of Saudi Arabia’s security predicament, a new Israeli government – one that would enable what should have happened long ago, an Arab-Israeli NATO facing Iran and its proxies – is a dictate of reality. And just this week, Mohammed bin Salman himself made clear that ties with Israel are conditional on progress on the Palestinian issue.
We can tell ourselves that Europe is becoming Islamized, or committing suicide, and that may well be true. But being right does not mean being wise. So what do we do about it? European economic sanctions could bring Israel to collapse, and before you can be right, you must avert an existential danger.
After what the whole world has seen – Jewish terrorism running rampant in the West Bank under government patronage, and the devastation in Gaza alongside the boasting of “full-on Right” ministers about flattening it – an imposed solution is a real danger. It can be averted only by a complete change of course on the Palestinian issue, and there is no escaping the need to start taking it seriously. Despite the war with Iran, and despite the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian problem is alive and kicking.
If the Palestinians’ interests were detached from those of the wider Arab world, they would want the Right to win in Israel. A right-wing government would put Israel on the South African track, which would force a Palestinian state upon it.
Israel’s true interest was to put the problem to sleep – to keep the asset quiet, without making waves. But wisdom is not the hallmark of the “full-on Right.” It was the hilltop youth who opened the window to an imposed settlement, and stopping Jewish terrorism is a precondition for any future move. If you will, the Likud slogan should be turned on its head: not “either the Right or Palestine,” but “if the Right – then Palestine.”
What a New Government Should Do
If, as I hope, the government changes in about two weeks, it must first of all become a real player on Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Today Israel’s participation there is purely formal: an almost private representative with no real weight. A new government must begin to shape developments on the Palestinian issue – and in the right direction, in both Gaza and the West Bank.
First, elections while the PA remains an entity of muqawama will not help; they will make things worse. The demand for reform of the PA – transforming it from an entity of struggle into one that works for its citizens – must come before elections. That begins with education for peace and the rejection of violence, and continues with strengthening the Palestinian middle class: the sector that has a stake in stability, and is therefore regarded as the enemy of every dictatorial regime or entity of muqawama.
The danger to Jordan is not theoretical either. A kingdom in which a large share of citizens are of Palestinian origin, and which outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood only a year and a half ago, cannot afford Hamas rule across the river. It is no coincidence that in 2021 Jordanian intelligence was among those pressing Abbas to abandon the elections.
The danger to Jordan is not theoretical. A kingdom in which a large share of citizens are of Palestinian origin, and which outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood only a year and a half ago, cannot afford Hamas rule across the river.
For that reason, the postponement itself could be an opportunity – if the eleven months until September 2027 are used for reform, and not merely to buy time for Fatah. Otherwise, elections will bring Hamas to the West Bank, endangering not only the Palestinian Authority but Israel and Jordan as well.
Pinhas Inbari is a senior Middle East researcher, journalist, author, screenwriter and poet. He wrote the entries on the Palestinians for the New Hebrew Encyclopedia and served for many years as a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He has written non-fiction books on the Palestinian question and a linguistics book on the roots of the Hebrew language, “Sippur Shoresh” (The Story of a Root). The novels he co-wrote with his wife, Aviva, are “Al Gav Sufa” (On the Back of a Storm), about the challenges facing the Christian communities of the Western Galilee under the British Mandate in the face of radical Islam and the status of women, and “Shomer HaShe’ol” (Guardian of Sheol), which deals with Israeli corruption.
