Source: Zman Yisrael (Israel Time)

By Pinhas Inbari

After canvassing extensively in Arab society in Israel and speaking with Arab citizens of the country, one conclusion is unavoidable: in this election, Arab citizens will flock to the polls. Arab voter turnout is expected to be unprecedented, and the Arab vote could well be decisive.

There is a range of views among Arab citizens of Israel as to the purpose of this election, but one thing unites them all: a burning desire to remove this government — with particular emphasis on Benjamin Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir.

There is a range of views among Arab citizens of Israel as to the purpose of this election, but one thing unites Arab voters: a burning desire to bring down this government — with particular emphasis on Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben Gvir.

The urge to flock to the polls stems not only from a desire for change, but also from doubt about the opposition's intentions, and a lingering question of whether it too genuinely wants to shake the current government to its foundations. A strong Arab bloc in the Knesset could force the opposition to accept an Arab partner.

Who Will the Arab Voter Support?

Most Arab voters, as we heard on the streets, will vote for the Arab lists rather than the general lists, although there is sympathy for Yair Golan and Gadi Eisenkot.

The conclusions below are not based on a formal, scientific poll, but on impressions gathered from street-level conversations. Regarding Yair Golan, one interviewee said he had never voted before because he does not trust the Arab lists, but this time he will vote for Golan, because he feels compelled to vote, though not for an Arab list.

Still, the large majority will vote for the Arab lists, and it is worth understanding what distinguishes them from one another in the eyes of the Arab voter.

Disillusionment with the Palestinian Authority

A link between Mansour Abbas's Ra'am and the other lists is seen as effectively impossible, given the question of legitimacy that Arab society attaches to a state perceived as occupying parts of Palestine. There is deep disappointment with the Palestinian Authority, and the average Arab citizen understands that the occupation persists in no small part due to the PA's own failures.

This disillusionment with the Palestinian Authority has created an emotional rupture between Arab citizens of Israel and Palestinians in the territories, and there is no sense of shared fate between them. But when it comes to Israel itself — the fact that it remains, in their eyes, an occupying state — this is what still stops the average Arab voter from casting a ballot for an ordinary "Israeli" party.

One interviewee said: "The moment Eisenkot says the words 'two states for two peoples,' I will leave my Arab party and vote for him. And that includes an Arab list's willingness to be part of an 'occupying' government. But under current conditions — support from outside to bring down the government? Certainly. To join it? Still too early."

One interviewee said: "The moment Eisenkot says the words 'two states for two peoples,' I will leave my Arab party and vote for him. And that includes an Arab list's willingness to be part of an 'occupying' government."

Ra'am's Innovation: Abbas and Segalovich

And here lies the great innovation of Mansour Abbas's Ra'am relative to the other parties. A supporter of Abbas told us: "We know that we, Arab citizens of Israel, cannot solve the Palestinian problem. It is far bigger than we are. We wish our Palestinian brothers well, but we have to deal with our own problems."

The apparent joining in of Yoav Segalovich to a combined run with Mansour Abbas detaches Ra'am from the Arab "ghetto" and brings it into the broader Israeli framework, raising the question of national service enlistment for Arab society as a step toward full equality. The response from Abbas's supporters should not come as a surprise — yes, and Mansour Abbas himself has said so.

The explanation is telling — the need to create frameworks for enlistment, or as Arabs term it, "volunteering," is not something imposed on them, but a need felt by the community itself.

One of the problems facing Arab society is idle youth, easy prey for crime gangs. The social need is to channel them into constructive frameworks until they decide their path — higher education or joining the working market.

Segalovich's apparent addition to a joint run with Abbas carries further significance. The massacre in the Gaza-envelope communities deepened Israeli Arabs' despair over the prospects of drawing closer to Jewish society, and here is a senior figure from the heart of the Zionist-security establishment joining an Arab list.

This could not have happened had Ra'am kept to the mold of Arab parties uninterested in connecting to the Zionist mainstream of the state. The criticism of Abbas for choosing not to align with the Arab lists shifted overnight, and was retroactively vindicated.

The apparent addition of Saglovich to a joint run alongside Abbas detaches Ra'am from the Arab "ghetto" and brings it into the broader Israeli framework — raising the question of enlistment as a step toward full equality. The response from Abbas's supporters should not come as a surprise: yes.

Ready to Serve, but Not to Bear Arms

Asked why they don't simply enlist in the police, given that rampant crime is a foundational problem within their own community, the answer was surprising: they are ready to do everything except carry a weapon. The weapon represents, on one hand, the occupation, and on the other, crime.

"It's Too Good to Be True"

But beyond the burning desire to take their fate into their own hands, almost everyone I spoke with is fairly convinced that the government will not fail to sabotage the election in some way. The election appears to be the great opportunity for change, but "it's too good to be true." The more they want change, the more they fear the government will not allow it to happen.

Among the means Likud is expected to employ toward that end, several of those I spoke with pointed specifically to a campaign of pressure against Arabs who have successfully integrated into the state — doctors foremost among them — betting that targeting a visible, respected professional class will chill broader Arab participation and blunt the very turnout that threatens the government.

Pinhas Inbari is a senior Middle East researcher, journalist, author, screenwriter and poet. He authored the entries on the Palestinians in the New Hebrew Encyclopaedia, and worked for many years as a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He has written non-fiction works on the Palestinian problem and a linguistics book on the roots of the Hebrew language, "Root Story." The novels he co-authored with his wife Aviva are "On the Back of a Storm," about the Christian communities of the western Galilee under the British Mandate facing radical Islam and the status of women, and "Guardian of Hell," which deals with corruption in Israel.