By Pinhas Inbari

From Hebrew version in Israel Time

On the margins of the ultra-Orthodox onslaught against the home of the Supreme Court’s deputy president, Justice Noam Sohlberg, and the farce of the “secret ballot” that produced a new State Comptroller, two further items slipped by almost unnoticed – and both point in the same direction. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Israel has no territorial claims against Lebanon, and in Jerusalem a decision was taken to seize Arab properties at the heart of the Old City market.

The direction is this: to cancel Israel’s elections at any cost – including setting Jerusalem alight and hurling Israel into a Jerusalem intifada that would sweep up the entire country and make elections impossible. That is the direction. But with one warning light: it may not actually come to pass, in the hope that the sheer scale of the danger deters those who are planning it. One can only hope.

Rubio Extinguishes the Fronts

Rubio’s statement means that the United States is shutting down all of Israel’s active fronts for it, along with the vision of settlement in Lebanon (and in Gaza). President Donald Trump is in no rush to renew the war against Iran – and with no war abroad, a war will break out at home.

Rubio’s statement means the U.S. is shutting down all of Israel’s active fronts, and the vision of settlement in Lebanon and Gaza. With no war abroad, a war will break out at home.

Why did Rubio state the obvious? Because, according to information emerging from the Washington talks, Israel is demanding to keep buffer zones in southern Lebanon in its own hands. So long as these are security demands, there is no argument that this is what must be done – but the security demand has been contaminated by settlement nuclei waiting to plant themselves in southern Lebanon.

The Battle for Jerusalem’s Old City

Clearing the merchants out of the heart of the Old City is meant to ignite an uproar that would make holding elections difficult – elections that would then revolve around the issue of Jerusalem. The plan to take over Al-Wad Street has been known for a long time. Hardali-messianic actors – the hardalim (an acronym for “nationalist ultra-Orthodox”) are a hardline stream that fuses ultra-Orthodox religious stringency with the activist nationalism of religious Zionism – marked “Jewish properties” in the Old City long ago – including apartments rented from Arabs by Jews in the market – in order to expropriate them. In parallel, there is a property-acquisition drive around Damascus Gate, where Al-Wad Street begins.

To grasp the gravity of the move, one must remember that it was precisely these market merchants who drove the knife-wielders out of the city’s alleys. The Arabs’ integration into the fabric of the city is what saves it from the idleness of the ultra-Orthodox. The Arabs are the glue binding the two halves of the city together, while the hardali-Kahanist circles work to inflame it – alongside the attacks on Christian clergy.

When one adds the pressure on the Old City merchants to the pressure on the Al-Aqsa Mosque – with Erdoğan’s Turkey watching from Syria – the dangers we are bringing down upon ourselves with our own hands cannot be taken lightly. One could put it this way: Itamar Ben-Gvir will divide Jerusalem, while it is precisely the Arab actors who are working toward restraint.

The Arabs are the glue binding the two halves of Jerusalem together, while the hardali-Kahanist circles work to inflame it. The pressure on the Old City merchants, together with the pressure on Al-Aqsa as Turkey watches from Syria, constitutes a danger.

The Arabs Restrain, the Jews Ignite

According to sources in East Jerusalem, Jordan has instructed the Muslim Waqf on the Temple Mount to hold back and not be dragged into Ben-Gvir’s provocations. In parallel, at Fatah’s recent congress in the West Bank, Abu Mazen called for restraint, saying the Jews “are destroying their own state better than anyone else.” He did fold Fatah terror figures such as Zakaria Zubeidi into the movement’s senior institutions – but only in order to restrain them and keep them under close watch. At this stage, at any rate.

The Assault on the Justice: The Rift Over Conscription

The ultra-Orthodox assault on Supreme Court Deputy President Noam Sohlberg stems from the deep rift between ultra-Orthodoxy and religious Zionism over conscription. While religious Zionism sacrifices its finest sons on the open fronts, ultra-Orthodox draft-evasion is an ideological move against the knitted-kippah messianism of the religious-Zionist camp.

The ultra-Orthodox fear that the knitted-kippah deputy president will deal harshly with them on conscription for ideological reasons. The rift between the two halves of Judaism was supposed to surface around the cabinet table, but the joy of budgets bridged the gaps – and what the ultra-Orthodox feared will not happen by way of the justice.

The Temple as a Campaign Promise

Especially troubling new developments are visible as the Shas movement turns into a bridge between ultra-Orthodoxy – which regards the Western Wall as the holy site – and the hardal camp, which rejects the Wall in favor of the Temple Mount and the Temple itself.

Especially troubling new developments are visible as Shas turns into a bridge between ultra-Orthodoxy, which regards the Western Wall as the holy site, and the hardal camp, which rejects the Wall in favor of the Temple Mount and the Temple.

In Shas’s new campaign poster from the weekend, we see the Western Wall as the backdrop, and at the center an ornamented Sephardic Torah case engraved with the Temple, the shadow of the Temple looming over the Wall from above. The slogan: “Basic Law: Torah Study – the Foundation of the People of Israel!”, and at the bottom, “A Jewish State.” For the first time in Israel’s electoral history, the matter of the Temple – even if mediated through the Torah – becomes a campaign promise. And this in an ultra-Orthodox party.

Shas’s new campaign poster: the Western Wall in the background, the Temple on the Torah case (from Aryeh Deri’s page on X)

But it is not happening only in Shas. On social media, among Likud supporters, an AI image has been circulating in recent days and adopted as a base message: Netanyahu buckling under the burden, his suit torn, carrying on his shoulders an enormous Star of David at whose center stand the Temple and the menorah, while in the background, to his right, the Dome of the Rock is bathed in sunrise. The captions: “NEVER AGAIN IS NOW” and “The People of Israel Lives.”

What do we see in the image? A battered Netanyahu carrying the burden of Jerusalem, the Temple, and Judaism alone. True to Netanyahu’s method of making lemonade out of lemons, the mounting American pressure on him – peaking in President Trump’s shouting phone call – is turned, for the base, into proof of heroism: he bears the burden before all of them. From “a leader in a different league” who stirs admiration in the base, Netanyahu shifts to feelings of compassion and sympathy for the humiliation he endures as the one defending Jerusalem and the Temple Mount. The “NEVER AGAIN” is meant to overshadow the failures of October 7.

From “a leader in a different league” who stirs admiration in the base, Netanyahu shifts to compassion and sympathy for the humiliation he endures as the defender of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount. The “NEVER AGAIN” is meant to overshadow the failures of October 7.

The Hungarians Wanted Democracy. The Jews Want Dictatorship.

Will there be an election day? Not certain. Anyone who sees Hungary as a precedent for Israel should think again. The Hungarians wanted democracy. The Jews want dictatorship.