Translate from Israel Time

It is difficult to overstate the importance of the anticipated White House meeting between President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for Israel's future: Will it secure its place at the forefront of the leading states in the Middle East alongside moderate Arab countries, primarily Saudi Arabia, or will it collapse into a violent and fearful ghetto—a Jewish Sparta?
Two interconnected issues are on the agenda: progress on Trump's peace initiative track and the Security Council's decision on the day after the end of the Gaza war.
Regarding the Trump-MBS meeting, the main focus will be normalizing Saudi relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, alongside Saudi Arabia's military strengthening with advanced weapons, primarily F-35 aircraft. In parentheses, we note that Saudi Arabia will not simply "join" others' initiatives. It will not follow the Gulf states but will initiate something new—what Saudi Arabia will propose is a Red Sea Alliance, which we will detail on another occasion.
Saudi Arabia has two demands to advance normalization with Israel: tangible progress toward a Palestinian state (although in his last speech before the Saudi Shura about six months ago, bin Salman revived the old Saudi initiative that conditioned relations with Israel on the actual establishment of a state, he has not repeated this formula since), and the removal of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from the government.
Regarding the first demand, it appears Saudi Arabia can be satisfied, and it has good reason to be content following its joint initiative with France on recognizing a Palestinian state, and now the draft resolution submitted by the United States to the Security Council, which includes a serious path to a Palestinian state. The Security Council resolution linking progress in Gaza to advancing the Palestinian state will also bind Israel, despite whatever is said in Jerusalem.
It is reasonable to assume that Trump will whisper in bin Salman's ear that he already has Netanyahu's promise to go along with the Security Council resolution despite all his maneuvers to preserve his government. This matter leads to the second issue—Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. Here, Trump will presumably assure his guest that he will personally ensure they are restrained, but given the sight of Palestinian villages burning in the West Bank and the "compliment" the "camel rider" received from the Grandmaizer it is doubtful the guest will be satisfied, and this will remain the major obstacle to Saudi Arabia joining the normalization.
Will Trump, after intervening in Netanyahu's trial, also intervene in his government's composition?
Over the weekend, President Putin called Netanyahu, and it can be estimated that he asked Netanyahu to coordinate moves to thwart the US draft resolution at the Security Council. To understand why, one must understand what motivated Russia to submit a counter-resolution to the Security Council.
At the root of the dispute between Russia and the United States is Trump's Peace Council headed by Trump and ex-British Prime Minister Tony Blair. This council means the United States is putting boots on the ground in the Middle East and pushing Russia out. The "Peace Council" means the United States will manage Gaza's reconstruction, and the base it will establish on the Strip's border, alongside the base it wants to establish in Syria, will complement its bases at Incirlik in Turkey and Al Udeid in Qatar, establishing its primacy in the Middle East and the world in general.
Russia will not concede without a fight, but it is doubtful whether it can veto the US resolution. Russia does not challenge the intention to establish a multinational force for Gaza but challenges the intention to establish Trump and Blair's peace council as the source of authority, arguing instead for the Security Council, the UN, and UN resolutions on the Palestinian issue as the authority.
Hence the importance of the American resolution's wording for Israel's interests. This will be the first resolution in which the Security Council disconnects decisions on the Palestinian issue from "international legitimacy"—namely, from the right of return and the 1947 partition plan. This will be a diplomatic blow to the PLO and will force the Palestinian Authority to adapt to a new reality at the UN.
What is interesting is that countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, and Indonesia support the American draft resolution, not the Russian one. In other words, Saudi Arabia, which is leading efforts in the Middle East to dismantle militias, primarily Hamas and Hezbollah, is willing to disconnect from "international legitimacy," the cornerstone of Palestinian diplomacy, which Putin is now trying to preserve for Russia's interests. Did he find a receptive ear in Bibi?
Given the sweeping regional support for Trump's plan, will Putin veto it, which could complicate matters not only with Trump but also with the leading states of the Middle East?
The price Israel is asked to pay is agreement to wording that specifies a path to a Palestinian state. Is there substance to establishing a Palestinian state? It does not appear that at least the main players in the Middle East believe such a state will be established, certainly not under current regional circumstances—the proof being that in all contacts regarding Gaza's future, the Palestinian Authority is excluded. No one invites it to be a party to contacts. No one asks Abu Mazen what he thinks about this or that matter.
Worse still, the only Palestinian address is Hamas! It is the partner in all moves and has gained recognition from the Trump administration. In a few days, Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy, is scheduled to meet with Hamas senior Khalil al-Hayya to discuss with him the continuation of contacts following the Trump-MBS meeting.
The Palestinian Authority is required to undertake deep reform in its capabilities and character, and so far, it has not convinced anyone that it wants and can break free from the shackles of the past and embark on a new path.
A great opportunity has rolled into Israel's hands to change the UN's codes regarding everything related to Palestinian decisions. The opportunity is so great that it is almost certain Israel will miss it.