Behind the scenes of negotiations over the hostage deal and the fake "American company" providing aid to Gaza, a regional transformation is unfolding between the Saudi-led bloc and the Qatar-Turkey bloc, with Israel increasingly aligning with the "Muslim Brotherhood" group against the "Abraham Accords" alliance.

The Energy Pipeline Battle

This regional reorganization has many dimensions, with the economic aspect being particularly prominent. Europe seeks to break free from dependence on Russian energy and transition to Gulf Arab energy sources. The critical question: will gas and oil pipelines run from the Gulf to Haifa or to Turkey? Israel finds itself supporting pipelines to Turkey, while Saudi Arabia advocates for pipelines through Israel. If Israel insists on routing pipelines through Turkey, Egypt might claim the grand prize, with pipelines passing through one of its ports.

The Suspicious "American Company"

All threads lead to the "American company" that undertook to manage aid to Gaza. The American director who was supposed to run it and give it the appearance of an "American company" resigned, unwilling to cooperate with the transfer plan from northern Gaza to the south.

Israel ostensibly agreed to four distribution points spread from southern Gaza to the north, but in practice opened only one station in southern Gaza while leveraging air force operations over northern Gaza with a clear intention to evacuate Gazans from north to south.

Settlement Plans and Hamas's Future

Government ministers make no secret of their intention to evacuate northern Gaza to establish settlements there. Since no alternative to Hamas is being built—on the contrary, the beginning of Gazan revolt against Hamas was suppressed with the renewal of intensive IDF activity in the Strip—one can outline the war's final outcome as Israel perhaps envisions it: northern Gaza will be Israeli, with settlement blocs, while southern Gaza will belong to Qatar and Turkey, who will rebuild the new Hamas there.

The Saudi-Qatar Divide

At the root of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar over Gaza lies the Hamas question. Saudi Arabia insists that Hamas be disarmed, while Qatar maintains that in any solution "the resistance will remain."

Israel ostensibly demands Hamas's dismantlement and removal from Gaza, but in practice, it stands with Qatar in its dispute with Saudi Arabia. Israel has only one way to bring competition to Hamas in Gaza: opening the Rafah crossing. The question of who will control Gaza the day after will be determined by how aid enters Gaza—if through Rafah, then through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE; if through Kerem Shalom, then through Qatar, with Turkey behind it.

Udi Dekel's statements to Channel 12 provide good reason to assess that Qatar and Turkey stand behind the "American company."

Syria and Regional Alliances

Against this backdrop, one can understand the improving relations between Israel and Jolani's Syria. Qatar serves as matchmaker, seeking to incorporate Israel into the broader complex of the Muslim alliance in the Middle East.

The UAE also uses Kerem Shalom, but on a limited scale, working with several municipalities, perhaps in coordination with Saudi Arabia to avoid leaving the arena solely to Qatar.

The Broader Stakes

Why does this matter? Because the struggle over Gaza will determine the Middle East's fate—with the Muslim Brotherhood or against them, with the concrete battle being over energy pipelines. For Qatar to connect with Turkey, it needs to topple the regimes in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. To topple Saudi Arabia and Jordan, it needs quality footage for Al Jazeera, which Israel provides through scenes of horror in Gaza, while Ben-Gvir's provocations on the Temple Mount contribute nicely to the overall effort.

The Palestinian Authority's Role

Here the Palestinian Authority enters the picture. To understand its role in developments, one must go back several years to a meeting between PA President Abu Mazen and the late Saudi King Abdullah.

According to senior Palestinian sources, Abu Mazen came to request renewal of Saudi aid totaling $200 million annually that Saudi Arabia had stopped. When the king asked Abu Mazen to express support for moderate Arab states against Syrian-Iranian pressure, Abu Mazen told him that Palestinians are neutral in inter-Arab conflicts. According to sources, King Abdullah exploded in anger, responding that Saudi Arabia had stood with Palestinians all these years, and now when all Arab rulers are wobbling on their thrones, you're neutral?

Saudi Arabia restored aid under American pressure, but Palestinian neutrality distanced them for years, until Saudi Arabia completely canceled aid to the Palestinian Authority and removed the condition of establishing a Palestinian state from the Saudi initiative to normalize with Israel.

Recent Shifts

But now, as it becomes clear that Israel isn't separating from its strategic alliance with Qatar, despite all the dangers this alliance poses to Arab states, and a dramatic change has occurred in the Palestinian Authority—which has abandoned its infuriating neutrality toward Arab dangers and expressed an unequivocal position against Hamas and desire to integrate with the Saudi bloc—Saudi Arabia has also changed its position. It has now shifted gear in favor of realizing a Palestinian state, or at least achieving international recognition of such a state. This underlies the joint Saudi-French initiative for a major conference on Palestinian state recognition.

Israel's decision to prevent Arab foreign ministers, led by Saudi Arabia, from coming to Ramallah on Sunday only sharpens the struggle of titans in the Middle East between the Qatar-Turkey-Jolani-Muslim Brotherhood bloc versus the anti-Muslim Brotherhood bloc led by Saudi Arabia, with the Palestinian Authority aligning with Saudi Arabia while Israel aligns with the Muslim Brotherhood.