. As previously reported in an earlier report, the decision to delay (i.e., cancel) the elections were already made two weeks ago in the Muqata’a when a discussion of The Fatah's top brass concluded that in the face of the Biden administration's indifference, there is no point in the process as the risks overshadow the benefits.
According to our Palestinian sources, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki reported this to his German counterpart, since the entire election process began in Munich when Mahmoud Abbas sought Europe's help to counter Trump's initiatives, and they said that to initiate a political process in the Palestinian arena, the PA must reconnect Gaza and the West Bank and refresh its legitimacy in the elections.
Since the United States is not returning to the Palestinian arena, and the Quartet auspices are irrelevant because of the deepening disagreements between the United States and Russia on a long list of issues, then it is better to cancel the elections.
However, it turns out that Germany did not accept the Palestinian decision, and Mahmoud Abbas was forced, under the grounds of his health, to come to Germany to persuade Merkel to step down. Did she really believe that? It's unclear. The problem is that if Europe wants Mahmoud Abbas' legitimacy, and that doesn't happen, what should it think about continuing to help the Palestinian Authority?
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh has announced that the Arab countries have stopped funding the PA. Europe and the U.S. may remain the sole sponsors.
All of this pressure is to hold elections by all means, as well as other pressures.
It turns out that it is not Hamas that is Mahmoud Abbas' main problem, but Tanzim Fatah of the local leadership headed by Dahlan, Barghouti, and the armed Tanzimians in Jenin and the refugee camps. They are committed to pulling the PLO/Tunis and Abu Mazen out of the West Bank. After the departure of the election train, they will not return at the first stop. What are they going to do if there is a cancellation of the election? It's unclear.
The one who continues to push for elections is Qatar. She sees them as an opportunity to gain access to the West Bank by using Jibril Rajoub to activate it. Rajoub announced that he had resigned from his military post as a general, and according to our Palestinian sources, the plan is for him to be appointed chairman of the Palestinian Legislative Council with Hamas' consent. It will open the door to Qatar and Hamas' Qatari-based wing, Saleh Aruri and Khaled Mash'al, who was elected head of Hamas “Outside District”.
But Marwan Barghouti, along with Nasser al-Kidwa, the cousin of Yasser Arafat, will run for president. There is no way that this group will reach an agreement or even hold contacts with Mahmoud Abbas, especially after Mahmoud Abbas took Kidwa's car, fired him from his job at the Arafat Center, and stopped his salary. Dahlan is not with them, but not far away together with the dismissed Prime Minister, Salam Fayyad.
For the time being, they are separated, but at some point, they are expected to connect and behind them stay the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. Neither the United Arab Emirates nor Saudi Arabia will leave the arena for Qatar.
Egypt and Jordan share different views. Both are against the elections and at a series of meetings between their intelligence leaders on the Muqata'a and Mahmoud Abbas, they were clearly against the elections. Egypt wants to block Qatar and Jordan to block Hamas.
To sum up: Mahmoud Abbas, the Tunisians, Jordan and Egypt against the elections, the Tanzim in the West Bank, Qatar and its personnel in Fatah, and the Qatari wing of Hamas are in favor of the elections, Europe will not easily swallow the bitter pill, Biden does not care, and the same you can apply to Hamas Gaza that is headed by Sinwar.