The USA state secretary, Mike Pompeo is coming today on the eve of establishing of the unity government as timing that looks like nailing the coalition preventing the fourth round of elections.
The White House was the first to welcome the unity government and the dispatch of Pompeo in this timing indicates that what we assumed on day one, that the unity government was born during the visits of Gatz and Netanyahu in DC on the eve of declaring the Trump Deal and this is the commitment that they gave Trump to help him in his election season.
But the Trump Deal in more than an electoral asset for Trump, but represents a real USA interest – to prepare the ground for the USA safe withdrawal from the ME leaving behind a strong alliance of Israel and the moderate Sunni countries led by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf and Jordan is a vital link in it.
That’s why the issue of China will be high on Pompeo’s agenda – the USA wants the pro USA axis that will replace it will not permit neither China nor Russia to step in into the vacuum. Why not mentioning Russia in this regard? Because, as we see in Syria and Libya, Putin himself is considered the evacuation of the ME, except for its basis in the Syrian shores.
In Israel they believe that the core of the Trump Deal is annexing the parts of the West Bank, but the core of the plan is establishing a Palestinian state in a way that will pose a threat to Israel. The act of annexation should come.
What does it mean for the composition of the new government of Israel? Firstly, Gantz must keep the positions that are relevant to the Trump deal – Defense and Foreign Affairs. His assumption is that if he will perform well in this respect, the USA will not let Netanyahu to block his assumption of prime ministry.
Secondly, Regev cannot be the minister responsible for the Mount Temple – because she relates to the radical Jews that want to change the status quo with Jordan that is a point of friction with the Sunni states and does not fit the mood of coming closer and warming up the regional relations based on establishing a Palestinian state that doesn’t compromise the Israeli interests on the one hand and taking away the Palestinian file off the road of Israel and Sunni grand reconciliation.
That’s why Bennet and Shaked cannot be part of this coalition while Rabbi Peretz, may join in order to protect the interests of the settlers in the stormy days to come.