At the time of writing, Hamas has not yet provided its response to the Trump plan. However, judging by the prevailing opinion in Arab media outlets, the answer will likely be positive in principle, though Hamas will impose conditions related to its main difficulty: transferring Gaza's administration to Western hands. British statesman Tony Blair, acting in President Trump's name, would effectively end the ideology of the muqawama (resistance) and Hamas's own role.

In the past day, it was reported that Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Gaza's military commander who holds the hostages, opposes the deal. According to him, it spells the end of Hamas's rule, even if they accept the agreement.

This is obviously a strong claim, representing a substantial obstacle to Hamas's consent to the deal, as the question concerns Haddad's personal future rather than Gaza's wellbeing. The question is whether Qatar will impose its will on him. In my opinion, Qatar and Hamas's leadership in Doha will exert pressure on him, and there's a chance for conditional agreement.

After Qatar and Hamas's Doha leadership entered American protection, it's reasonable to assume Qatar will ask Trump to guarantee protection for Haddad and his associates as well. Over the weekend, there was a phone call between the Qatari Emir and President Trump, and it's likely Haddad's situation came up in the conversation.

Why Assume Hamas's Answer Will Be Positive in Principle?

In terms of territorial control, in exchange for releasing the hostages, the IDF will withdraw from Gaza's outskirts. Hamas keeps its weapons, and since it will take a long time before the international force materializes, Hamas can meanwhile restore its control over Gaza.

On the other hand, the threat that Israel will have free hands to "eliminate Hamas" and "complete the task" is hard to believe, given that Chief of Staff Zamir is unlikely to stain his uniform with the blood of the hostages.

The Role of the Prime Minister's Office

Despite the Prime Minister's Office's spin about removing Hamas entirely from Gaza, in reality, the office is working to keep Hamas in place. We saw this in the closure of the Rafah crossing to prevent the entry of elements that could replace Hamas, and in the timing of the original Chariots of Gideon operation, precisely when Gazans began mass protests against Hamas. Chariots of Gideon stopped this process and removed an internal threat to Hamas.

The test of the PMO's sincerity in wanting to replace Hamas will come when the Rafah crossing issue arises. Whether Israel maneuvers to keep the crossing closed or cooperates with its opening will testify to the truth of its intentions. Opening the crossing means allowing an alternative to Hamas to enter. Keeping it closed leaves Hamas as the landlord. The ceasefire period will give Hamas the opportunity to eliminate enemies who arose against it during the war.

The Rafah Crossing: The Real Test

In practice, opening the Rafah crossing is the real test, as it would first enable a change of government, even without Hamas's consent in Gaza, since it would allow Abraham Accords countries to establish a competing authority in Rafah—a sort of Idlib that would spread northward under international force protection.

This was the original plan. TheMorag Corridor was supposed to be the new Philadelphi Corridor. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Egypt, and Indonesia were already in Rafah until Netanyahu decided that the Philadelphi Corridor was “the rock of our existence”—or Qatar's. He removed the Arab powers that had already positioned themselves and made the Kerem Shalom crossing Qatar's conduit of influence.

The Kerem Shalom vs. Rafah Question

The question of Kerem Shalom or Rafah now stands at the center of behind-the-scenes discussions about the ability to influence Gaza under Tony Blair's Peace Council leadership.

It was reported that Blair is currently in Cairo so Egypt will authorize him to operate from Al-Arish until he can physically enter Gaza. Egypt cannot authorize this to avoid being accused by its fragile public opinion of collaborating with the "Zionist" plan. In my opinion, there will be no choice but to establish Blair's center inside Israel, near Kerem Shalom, parallel to opening Rafah. After all, these are two very close crossings, and until Blair organizes his entry, he will operate from Israel.

Qatar and Turkey's Influence

The question is: what will happen with the influence that Qatar and Turkey want to have in Gaza? The protection the United States gave Qatar may indicate that Qatar's relations with the Gulf states will reach normalization, but Qatar will be obligated to stop Al-Jazeera's incitement against regional stability.

Qatar has already begun personnel changes at the poison station. Is this real? Will Muslim Brotherhood propaganda cease? It's hard to believe, but it's always worth hoping—though with sober eyes.

Real Qatari assistance in ending the Gaza war could indicate what's to come. But in the meantime, on Hamas's website, we found this article—about how Al-Jazeera broadcasts from within the Gaza war undermine the stability of the Abraham Accords and the agreements themselves.

The baker testifies to his dough.