When a nation prepares for war, it must align its information warfare—or propaganda—with military objectives and strategic goals. Netanyahu's twist on this principle is that rather than war determining propaganda, propaganda determines the war. More precisely, after Netanyahu established the slogan of "absolute victory," he must adapt the war to fit this narrative. He cannot end the war without achieving "absolute victory," regardless of the cost.

Against this backdrop, the IDF's assassination operation in Doha must be understood. According to reports from Doha, the operation failed to eliminate Hamas leadership as Netanyahu had hoped.

The Timing Question

Why did Netanyahu decide to execute the assassination now? He claimed it had the backing of all security agencies—notably omitting Mossad approval—to advance the war's end through the return of "our hostages." However, security officials quickly clarified that the "timing" was not their recommendation. Questions remain about why Netanyahu excluded Mossad from his statement while claiming Shin Bet was in the frame, which is unusual since Mossad, not Shin Bet, handles operations beyond Israel's borders.

The answer lies in propaganda-driven policy and war planning. "Absolute victory" is incompatible with ending the war while Hamas remains in Gaza, through a hostage deal that returns our captives broken, with Israel releasing thousands of security prisoners to the West Bank.

Indeed, the moment Netanyahu became enamoured with the phrase "our hostages," it should have been clear he doesn't want hostage releases, as this would undermine his "absolute victory" slogan.

The Doha Drama

What we witnessed in Doha was a dramatic demonstration of our persistent fear—that Netanyahu doesn't want a deal and systematically sabotages every opportunity. This time through air force jets, which is deeply disappointing. If the air force was indeed among those who questioned the "timing," this necessitates refreshing "black flag" orders—not only refusing blatantly illegal genocide orders, but also orders from a problematic government mired in various scandals, whose state judgment is questionable.

Target Analysis

Attention must be paid to the assassination targets. Reports claimed all of Hamas's top leadership had gathered at the strike location, but only two names were published: Khalil Hayya, Gaza's leader, and Zaher Jabarin, the West Bank commander. What about the others? None appeared publicly, including Hayya and Jabarin. Publishing these two names illuminates why Hamas leadership convened—not only to discuss Trump's deal, but also how to leverage Gaza war's end to shift focus to the West Bank. Just as Ben-Gvir's Temple Mount provocations gave Hamas the pretext for "Al-Aqsa Flood" and the envelope massacre, Smotrich's annexation plan would give Jabarin the pretext for West Bank and Jerusalem terrorism, as the Palestinian Authority weakens due to Israel's financial stranglehold.

The Hayya Paradox

Therefore, Jabarin's elimination is an urgent need, but how and where is another question. The attempted elimination of Hayya raises different questions. Israel claims he was an obstacle to agreement, and like all statements from Jerusalem, this requires careful scrutiny. The truth is that Hayya was in contact with Adam Bohler, Trump's hostage envoy, and had agreed that in a war-ending deal, Hamas would be willing to surrender its weapons.

The very meeting between Bohler and Hayya alarmed Israel, and notably, immediately after this meeting, Israel intensified eliminations within Gaza, particularly targeting mayors who could have formed Hamas's infrastructure under Hayya's leadership. The question arises: why is a Hamas official who expressed willingness to surrender weapons a target for elimination? The answer is embedded in this analysis—Hamas remaining in Gaza contradicts the "absolute victory" slogan. Propaganda doesn't follow war; war follows propaganda.

Consequences and Hostage Implications

Regarding outcomes, primarily what happens now with the hostages. Concern for their welfare is genuine, but it's noteworthy that on the night of the assassination attempts, a Hamas source told the pro-Saudi Al-Arabiya that Hamas wouldn't withdraw from negotiations "to avoid giving Netanyahu what he wants." Following these statements, Qatar's Foreign Minister explicitly stated that Qatar wouldn't abandon its mediator role in ending the war.

Leadership Status Unclear

It's premature to draw definitive conclusions. Hayya, who heads the negotiating team, hasn't appeared publicly. While he survived, he was likely wounded. His son was killed, along with his chief of staff. What is his mental and physical condition for conducting negotiations?

What about the rest of Hamas leadership? Were they at the target? What happened to them? Apparently nothing, but why weren't they there? Following the assassination attempt, to what extent are they willing to return to negotiations?

Hamas's statement to Al-Arabiya should be understood as signaling to Gaza Hamas to protect the hostages, as ending the war remains Hamas's paramount goal. The attempt to eliminate Qatar-based Hamas leadership has returned focus to Gaza Hamas leadership, or what remains of it—Gaza City commander holding the hostages, Izz al-Din al-Haddad.

Al-Haddad's Contradictory Signals

Arabic media published two statements from him—first, his readiness for a “dignified deal”, but precisely on the assassination day, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat published his order to Gaza forces to prepare for prolonged, comprehensive war. The balance between Gaza and Qatar leadership now carries weight, as ultimately the relationship between Hayya and Haddad will determine outcomes.

Trump's Role

Ultimately, Trump will decide, and he hasn't hidden his anger over Israel's operation, promising Qatar that assassination attempts on its soil won't be repeated.

Unreliable Jerusalem sources hinted that Trump was informed, but this doesn't align with Trump's angry response. It appears Netanyahu tried to manipulate Trump. He likely agreed with him on severing Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood ties but concealed how he would accomplish this. Through assassination? He apparently hid this from Trump.

Will the assassination attempt bring Trump closer to deciding to end this tragedy? Ultimately, he's the only one who can, and hopefully that's what will happen.