The month of September brings Israel the challenge of sweeping recognition by many countries worldwide, particularly in Europe, of a Palestinian state. But the truth is that the real challenge will be for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and it's not related to the Palestinian state itself, but rather to the fact that the UN General Assembly will showcase the emergence of Saudi Arabia as the leading power in resolving the Palestinian issue, with emphasis on Gaza.

Why is this a problem for our prime minister? Because Saudi Arabia demands the removal of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from the government before it will renew the normalization initiative with Israel.

Ben-Gvir already senses the danger and announced in a cabinet meeting that it's preferable to forgo normalization if it comes as an obstacle to dismantling the Palestinian Authority.

The decision to dismantle the dream government with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich is as extremely difficult for Netanyahu, and it's hard to know how he could make such a dramatic decision.

But things are much worse for him because Smotrich is in a settlement-building frenzy, and both he and Ben-Gvir are talking about eliminating the PA and massive annexation of West Bank territories—meaning the Gulf emirates won't be able to maintain the Abraham Accords, and they will crumble. Perhaps Bibi doesn't care so much, but Trump does. Very much so.

Meanwhile, Trump's only significant achievement as a global peacemaker has been between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is a very important achievement, but in the crucial test of Ukraine, his efforts aren't bearing fruit, leaving him only with the Gaza arrangement. And here, not only will they not be a lever for expanding the Abraham Accords, but for destroying them. It will be interesting to see how Trump reconciles with the thought that he must give up the Nobel Peace Prize because of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, and what the implications will be for Bibi.

Saudi Arabia "Entering the Game"

In fact, there are already initial signs that Saudi Arabia is "entering the game," and a framework is beginning where Saudi Arabia leads moves regarding Gaza. First, we should recall Egyptian President Sisi's mysterious visit to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It can be assessed that Egypt seeks to part from its dual mediation with Qatar, and requested that Saudi Arabia take the reins. Immediately afterward, American mediator Bishara Bachach and Hussein al-Sheikh, Abu Mazen's deputy, arrived in Saudi Arabia. This means that if Saudi Arabia enters the game, it takes the Palestinian Authority with it, instead of the Qatar-Hamas duo.

But how serious is Saudi Arabia in its moves toward a Palestinian state? Not really. The test is whether Saudi Arabia will return to its old initiative, the "Saudi Initiative" that evolved into the "Arab Initiative," which conditioned any relationship with Israel on the actual establishment of a Palestinian state. This condition no longer exists. Normalization with Israel is conditioned not on establishing a Palestinian state, but on tangible progress, whatever that may be.

Saudi Arabia's need to highlight its contribution to the Palestinian issue is a counter to the Israeli-Qatari connection that seeks to bypass the Palestinian problem, and a defensive tool against horrid images from Gaza designed to undermine stability in the Arab world. The more Saudi Arabia talks about the Palestinian issue, the more it actually defends against Al Jazeera's propaganda.

September's Recognition Wave

Still, in September, recognition of a Palestinian state will dominate headlines. If Israel "responds" by annexing the West Bank, it will lose the Abraham Accords. So Israel actually has no answer, but when examining matters in depth, it's not as alarming as it sounds.

First, this isn't unconditional recognition. There are conditions, and they require the Authority to undergo deep reform to become capable of taking responsibility for Gaza and being accepted as a full-fledged state. This includes educational system reform, stopping funding for terrorists' families, and general elections. Until now, Abu Mazen isn't prepared to do this. The only thing he was willing to do is appoint Hussein al-Sheikh as his deputy (the second… he already has a deputy, Mahmoud al-Aloul from Nablus).

These aren't new demands. European recognition of a Palestinian state has been pending for a long time—and until the Authority meets European demands—Europe has stopped funding the Authority's regular budget, unlike development budgets and projects directly supervised by donor countries.

From this perspective, the media festival in New York won't change much on the ground. The Authority is crumbling even without Smotrich's kind assistance; it's not prepared to make reforms, and therefore its real test won't be whether they recognize it, but whether Europe will renew aid. If it doesn't renew aid, what good will the wave of recognition as a state do?

The Saudi-Egyptian Dynamic

We still don't know what Bashara Bachach and Hussein al-Sheikh are discussing in Saudi Arabia. It can be assumed these are issues President Sisi brought before bin Salman, mainly to join forces with Saudi Arabia regarding Gaza.

Saudi Arabia didn't support the Egyptian initiative for "the day after" because Saudi Arabia demanded dismantling Hamas of its weapons, and Egypt didn't agree, understanding this would be its job. Egypt proposes establishing a technocrat committee for the day after with the consent of both Hamas and Ramallah. Abu Mazen won't hear of any role for Hamas, only the Authority's full return to Gaza. No one agrees to this. Will Hussein al-Sheikh advance the Egyptian proposal so it's also accepted by Saudi Arabia toward September? These are the issues we must await answers to in order to assess what comes next.

All these are issues very far from this government's attention. The question isn't how Israel will respond, but how Trump will respond.