The new intense war in Gaza is so absurd that there are high chances this government will indeed pursue it. On the other hand, it is so absurd that it's hard to see how the government could actually go through with it. The result will be a war of press releases—quite similar to the "Gideon's Chariots" phase, which was a war of IDF spokesperson victories without ground coverage. But now the gap between official statements and what's happening on the ground will be so glaring that the first casualty will be the credibility of the IDF spokesperson.
The Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, pulled at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coattails when he told him he was leading the IDF into a trap, moving the IDF into combat in terrain where Hamas has the advantage—guerrilla warfare of hit-and-run tactics, where Hamas will strike the IDF and disappear. But Chief of Staff Zamir also pulled at his own uniform, and he won't be able to say in the future that he didn't know he was leading the IDF into Hamas's traps.
This will require a future refresh of "black flag" orders—when it's forbidden to follow orders that constitute war crimes as they are defined today, or "guidelines" from the political echelon that lack reasonableness and endanger the army, the soldiers, and the official war objectives.
In our case, the decision to occupy Gaza is presented as if to fulfil "all" the war objectives: dismantling Hamas's military and governmental capabilities and freeing the hostages. Regarding the hostage release, this phase of the war contradicts that goal. This is a campaign where the dangers to the hostages only intensify, while the chances of their release through a deal only diminish.
As for dismantling Hamas's governmental and military capabilities—this goal has already been achieved by the IDF, and Hamas has become a guerrilla force waiting for the IDF to enter the traps it has prepared, lacking any governmental capacity. But more importantly, the goal of dismantling Hamas's weapons is also accepted by Saudi Arabia and France, and the initiative to recognize a Palestinian state is conditional on Hamas being disarmed. The entry of the Palestinian Authority into the Gaza picture also depends on real reforms that Abu Mazen must implement, but he neither wants nor is capable of doing so.
The move to disarm Hamas exists without the new adventure of occupying Gaza. Therefore, if we judge the Gaza occupation by the criteria of war objectives, they don't meet them. It endangers the lives of the hostages and sabotages the real chance to disarm Hamas together with Saudi Arabia and Europe, according to the Lebanese model of disarming Hezbollah and the Palestinian Authority.
So, assuming that Netanyahu's statements about war objectives to free the hostages, etc., are spin at its finest, what is the real war objective?
Smotrich said it just before the decision to occupy Gaza: "We don't intend to return to Gush Katif. It was too small. We want settlements throughout the length and breadth of Gaza." Therefore, this phase of the war should be defined as the Grandmaizer Chariots War—a messianic war to satisfy the appetites of Smotrich, Daniella Weiss, and their ilk from the most right-wing edge of Israel's political spectrum.
But to realize this, they must remove Chief of Staff Zamir from the path and replace him with a messianic chief of staff like Zini or Winter, who would also replace the IDF's moral code from the code of purity of arms to the code of the religious-Zionist military preparatory schools—messianic bordering on war crimes according to international laws of The Hague tribunals.
It cannot be ruled out that Netanyahu deliberately set impossible war objectives for Zamir to force him to resign—and he must not. Among Netanyahu's and the messianics' undeclared war objectives is to transform the IDF into God's army. Chief of Staff Zamir must show stronger resilience than Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and maintain his position as a shield for the IDF and its values against the religious-Zionist assault.
These matters also have implications for the West Bank. It's known that Smotrich wanted to be Defense Minister when this government was formed—not so much because he cares about state security, but to decide the long war between the hilltop youth and the IDF in Judea and Samaria. Netanyahu almost gave it to him (what did he care?), but couldn't withstand the pressure against the appointment, including from the Biden administration.
Netanyahu made three promises to political Judaism, which form the basis of his government: Smotrich's decisive plan in the West Bank, a synagogue on the Temple Mount for Ben-Gvir, and the elimination of democracy for a "Jewish state" for Avi Maoz.
Therefore, he cannot close a deal with Hamas because the war in Gaza is a tool for him to fulfil his promises to the grandmaizers. The method: set impossible demands for Hamas that it cannot accept, and when Hamas rejects them, immediately burst into cheers—Hamas is to blame.
So the big question is whether there will be no deal on Gaza? The decision is in Trump's hands. Netanyahu cannot accept it, and the only way is to impose on him America's interests in ending the war and establishing the Israel-Saudi axis, which is also Israel's primary interest that clashes with the grandmaizter vision of withdrawal into a ghetto.
Trump said two things in this context: that the decision for war in Gaza is Israel's decision, and he won't interfere, but immediately added—for him, aid to Gaza is the top priority. In other words: define the boundaries of the Grandmaizter Chariots war.
It should be assessed that Netanyahu sold Witkof that he would pressure Hamas only to force them to accept a deal, but not "really." At this stage, Trump is helping Netanyahu apply some military pressure on Hamas to reach an agreement, but when he sees that Netanyahu has deceived him, the next phase will come quickly.
The Gaza war must end in a 3-month ceasefire, and that's what will happen. The only question is whether the hostages will survive. Let's hope they won't pay the price for Netanyahu's tricks and schemes.