As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares for his meeting with President Trump, Israel finds itself at a crossroads both in domestic policy and regarding the new deal with Hamas. These paths intersect, and their nature must be examined.
Internal Political Dynamics
The significant development in internal politics is Eisenkot's departure from his alliance with Gantz and his independent path forward, which remains unclear but whose direction is known. While Gantz wants to rejoin Netanyahu's government, Eisenkot seeks to build a unified and effective opposition. Will he establish his own party to serve as a magnet for other parties, or will he join an existing party that would become the magnet for unity? We shall wait and see.
In truth, Gantz enters and exits Netanyahu's governments according to Bibi's needs, which raises the question: what do Gantz and Bibi apparently know that we don't?
Netanyahu's Strategic Calculations
What should be Bibi's need now for Gantz's inclusion? On the surface, the greatest chance for ending the Gaza war given the opposition from Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
Although the opposition has promised Bibi a safety net for the Hamas deal, he doesn't want to depend on them, but rather stand on his own feet. He needs Gantz in the government so as not to be dependent on the opposition from outside but on his government from within.
Gantz is sending him positive signals, when he told the Srugim website that one must also listen to the arguments of those opposing the hostage deal. After this statement, Gantz is closer to the coalition than to the opposition.
The Qatargate Investigation Threat
But Netanyahu faces another fateful confrontation—the Qatargate investigations. Yesterday, news was released about an investigation with a warning of IDF Major General Poli Mordechai, who allegedly activated Bibi's people in the Prime Minister's Office according to the suspicion.
The investigation's progress threatens to reach Bibi directly, and the clarification of information from the Raven file in France, where he allegedly received money from Qatar through payments to the Likud party, could reach his doorstep.
This puts him in an action of rapid and vigorous activity to close the Qatargate investigation, and Gantz's joining precisely at this critical juncture could send a message to the Supreme Court justices.
Court Pressure and Judicial Intimidation
Against this background, one must understand the riots by Netanyahu supporters at the Supreme Court during the hearing on Zini's appointment as Shin Bet chief. This was designed to intimidate the judges, and unfortunately, we must agree that frightening judges works. They are genuinely afraid. Netanyahu's trial demonstrates this for all to see. "The judicial panel" is part of the defense, and they don't try to hide it.
After the courthouse disturbance, we heard both judges speaking in a spirit befitting the Prime Minister's position, not the Attorney General's positions. I estimate that Gali Baharav-Miara will indeed try to formulate a compromise formula with the Prime Minister that would allow Zini's appointment as Shin Bet chief. The expectation is that Bibi will accept the formula but immediately renege on it and do whatever he pleases.
After the shameful defeat of the Supreme Court 11.0—little has changed in the corridors of the justice system, marching with broken spirit toward its end.
The Compromise Proposal
The outlines of the "compromise proposal" were sketched by the Prime Minister's aide, Yaakov Bardugo. According to him, Miara will try to propose that Zini be distanced from the Qatargate investigation, and that handling Jewish terrorism in the West Bank be removed from the Shin Bet's hands and transferred to the Attorney General.
Why would Bibi accept this? Because it's an impossible proposal. You cannot artificially disconnect Shin Bet personnel from their boss, and how can the legal advisory department manage investigations? It can monitor them but not manage them.
The Real Issues Behind Zini's Appointment
The Supreme Court hearing was about two specific petitions that diverted attention from the real issue. The problem with Zini's appointment isn't just his conflict of interest in the Qatargate investigation—family connections to potential suspects—but his connection to the Hilltop Youth, which demands dismantling the Jewish department in the Shin Bet and allowing Jewish terrorism free rein to advance Smotrich's supposed "decisive plan."
Beyond this, Bibi's demand that Zini be loyal to him, not to the state, opens the door for the Shin Bet to become a Mukhabarat or Romania's dictatorial Securitate, operating against the state's citizens instead of against its enemies.
Consequences for the Justice System
If the Supreme Court truly goes along with this, as we heard from the judges' comments, the entire justice system will fall, and as an immediate consequence, protection for IDF officers and soldiers from the International Criminal Court in The Hague will be removed, and all will be exposed to prosecutions—and that's just the beginning. Not only will the fortress collapse—it will collapse with great noise.