Now, after the end of the war with Iran, Prime Minister's envoy Ron Dermer has departed for talks in Washington regarding Trump's grand deal centered on peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia—an agreement that is supposed to lead President Trump to a Nobel Prize.

The problem: Saudi Arabia doesn't want it.

From what can be learned from Saudi Arabia's behavior in recent days, their issue is that they don't trust Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and don't want to get close to him, so as not to be stung like many good people before them.

The ceasefire saga with Hamas is just the latest example. There was an agreement on completing the hostage deal with a permanent ceasefire, including the initial evacuation of Hamas members with their families to Egypt under medical care arrangements in Egypt. But Israel violated the agreement, and Egypt, for its part, stopped accepting Hamas members. Initially, 100,000 evacuees were discussed. The irony is that evacuating Hamas members is a basic Israeli demand—they had already begun implementing it, but Israel violated an agreement that was supposed to address one of its fundamental requirements.

Following the latest ceasefire violation, Hamas also doesn't trust Netanyahu, and in any case, the agreement will no longer be with Israel, but with the United States. The US will also need to prove to Hamas that it won't allow Israel to violate the agreement. It will also protect Hamas from the assassination of its leaders after the agreement.

According to that agreement, Israel would have also achieved its declared war objectives—dismantling Hamas's military capabilities and releasing the hostages.

Hidden War Objectives

Why would Israel violate an agreement that met its demands? Because it had even more important demands—it had war objectives it didn't declare, to the point where one could think that the declared war objectives are spin designed to cover the unofficial war objectives, which are the "relocation" (in the words of Bezalel Smotrich) of Gazans southward to aid distribution areas, and in the northern Strip, establishing a new settlement bloc. This is what IDF soldiers are fighting and dying for now in Jabaliya.

This brings us back to the fundamental problem—the existing Israeli-Qatari alliance that replaces the hoped-for peace with Saudi Arabia and contradicts it.

According to this plan—undeclared —Gaza will be divided in two: the Israeli north, where the new settlement bloc will be established, and the south under Qatari influence.

This is why Netanyahu closed Rafah—to block Egypt and Saudi Arabia from any influence in Gaza, and to leave Kerem Shalom as Qatar's gateway of influence in the southern Strip.

Syria as Alternative

So, if not Saudi Arabia—what then? Syria! When discussing expanding the circle of peace, Saudi Arabia and Syria are mentioned in the same breath, but they're not the same deal—they're opposite.

It can be assumed that Israel will try to convince Trump to settle for the lesser achievement of peace between Israel and Syria. This peace has several advantages for Netanyahu over peace with Saudi Arabia, chief among them—Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani doesn't care about the Palestinians, just like Qatar doesn't care. In exchange for peace with Israel, Jawlani will ask for American compensation and Mount Hermon, and won't raise any Palestinian demands. The working assumption should be that to give Smotrich his dream of settlements in northern Gaza, Bibi will agree to transfer Mount Hermon, already in Israeli hands, to Jawlani.

The question is whether Trump will agree to accept the second best—Jawlani—instead of the grand prize: Saudi Arabia. We assume not. It should be taken into account that Trump has a Saudi promise of trillion-dollar investments in the United States, and it's better to secure this promise, as it's real and concrete beyond ceremonies involving figures who were part of Salafi terrorist groups in the Middle East and hilltop youth leaders in Israel. Would such a ceremony pave Trump's way to the Nobel? Doubtful.

The Deal of the Century

Hence, there's no substitute for peace with Saudi Arabia, and to please Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will need to swallow frogs that could endanger his government. Trump understands these dilemmas well and offers Bibi the deal of the century—canceling his trial. If Bibi fears the Kahanists will send him to prison, then Trump will free him from this nightmare.

In truth, there's no need to work hard to cancel the trial. The "judicial panel" doesn't miss an opportunity to show it doesn't want to judge, and it will seize any opportunity to exempt itself from this trial. President Herzog is begging for just a chance to cancel the trial, and so will the "stately" opposition.

Israeli society will face the dilemma of whether, in order to return the hostages and end the war, it's possible to deliver the coup de grace to the dying trial.

The Bohler-al-Haya Agreement

If we assume Trump will go for the big Saudi deal and not for poor Jawlani, there will be no escape, at least in the initial stages, from another bilateral agreement between the United States and Hamas, based on the Bohler-al-Haya agreement.

The bottom line: the Bohler-al-Haya agreement spoke of dismantling Hamas's weapons within a framework that also includes addressing the Palestinian problem solution.

Al-Haya is in Cairo along with Ghazi Hamad, one of Ismail Haniyeh's aides, and in Gaza there is another Haniyeh aide, Ahmad Yusuf. That same Ahmad Yusuf gave a comprehensive interview to Al-Arabiya last week, reiterating his willingness to disarm Hamas in the context of renewing ties between Hamas and Fatah, and Hamas's recognition of the Oslo Accords.

Final Positions

This brings us to a further sharpening of the parties' positions. Saudi Arabia, together with Hamas's Gaza leadership, want a comprehensive arrangement including Hamas's disarmament. Israel wants to remove Hamas altogether and bring in "clans" like Abu Shabab.

Saudi Arabia is prepared to accept Hamas, but politically, in the style of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Qatar insists on continuing the "resistance"—meaning armed Hamas—but is prepared to divide Gaza between itself and Israel.

Does Trump have the time and nerves to deal with all these complications, or will he say "cut the bullshit," make a separate deal with Hamas, Netanyahu's trial along with the "judicial panel" will evaporate, and Bibi will "direct" Katz to end the war, bringing Trump his redemption.