The Israel-Iran war ended last night with Iran's final barrage on Israeli cities, which can be characterized as the opening salvo for renewed negotiations with the United States on a new nuclear agreement.
Israel won the war in a clear and unequivocal manner—Iran lost all its proxies and, most critically, its nuclear program. However, one question remains unanswered: what happened to the enriched material it had concealed.
In its final barrage, Iran demonstrated that it had preserved its missile capabilities, and that while Israel's Arrow defense system is very effective, it is not hermetic. Through its gaps, Israel can still absorb painful strikes.
Conversely, the Israeli Air Force maintains clear skies across the entire former Shia Crescent, which today might be redefined as the "Air Force Crescent." From Israel's perspective, this may be the most effective oversight mechanism to prevent Iran from returning to its nuclear program.
The war has redefined the negotiation agenda, which now includes missile capabilities, genuine oversight of nuclear program remnants to prevent renewal, and either transfer of hidden nuclear material to a third party or credible reporting on its fate.
Following the elimination of the nuclear program, the strategic threat now lies in the missile arsenal—even conventional weapons—and Israel must ensure this is addressed in negotiations.
Netanyahu's political acumen lies in understanding that in election campaigns, what matters is not what happened throughout a government's tenure, but what occurs in the final days. Based on this logic, it stands to reason that Netanyahu will now push for swift elections, before developments unfold that could tarnish his victory narrative.
In this context, he relies on the opposition to compete with him in claiming credit for the remnants of glory, rather than waging total political warfare—but that is a subject for separate analysis.
פנחס ענברי - מזרח תיכון מסובך במילים פשוטות 