Yesterday's Knesset vote on the draft exemption law ominously signals the continuation of the endless war in Gaza and the diminishing chances for a hostage deal.

At the end of a tense day, the collaboration between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his closest political ally, Aryeh Deri, succeeded in bending Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein to their will, reaching a "compromise" on the draft exemption law. The government survived its first test and continued its survival.

First and foremost, we must acknowledge that Netanyahu and Deri are the greatest political manipulators the people of Israel have ever known. Netanyahu, after skipping a session of his trial under the pretext of a fabricated illness, mobilized with full vigor and perfect health for the cunning politics that are the purpose of his life.

The opposition, by contrast, once again proved itself great in words but weak in action. Yair Lapid is a great orator but a failure in practice. He failed to maintain his government, failed to form a parliamentary bloc against the bloc Netanyahu assembled in the last elections, and cannot break free from the right-left narrative that leads Netanyahu to victory after victory, because there is no parallel narrative from the opposition like the obvious narrative of corruption versus integrity.

Edelstein's breaking point came with a note he received from Bibi late into the night. What was in it: war with Iran? A threat? Enticement? We will surely find out eventually.

Until his breaking point, Edelstein was very determined not to allow the draft exemption law. Why? For ideological reasons—there is still something like that here and there—and for personal reasons.

The ideology is connected to the dispute between the religious Zionists (Srugim) and the ultra-Orthodox (Haredim) over military service in the IDF. The war created an abyss between them, as the religious Zionists shed their blood while the Haredim cannot accept the religious Zionist ideology that the State of Israel is the "beginning of redemption" (reishit tzmichat geulateinu). Edelstein belongs to the religious Zionist conception of Judaism.

But he also had personal considerations. What were they? First, there is much bitterness in his heart toward Netanyahu, who disrupted his path from Knesset Speaker to the presidency, initially when he pushed aside his central role in Independence Day ceremonies, and finally when he stood by the fence for Bibi's sake and received a slap—as Knesset Speaker, he refused to vacate his position for the new Knesset Speaker and added insult to injury when he refused a court order, thereby being the first to take real action toward the judicial overhaul. Bibi did not appreciate the sacrifice he made for him and preferred Bougie for the presidency for obscure reasons.

Was he seeking to "atone" for his actions ahead of a renewed entry into politics, this time on Bennett's list? We will only know this later.

But to understand why Netanyahu had to overcome his "illness" to gird his loins for defeating the no-confidence motion, we need to understand what truly motivates Netanyahu. Understanding this motive raises great concerns about the continuation of the endless war and certainly about a new hostage deal.

Why? The most important thing for Netanyahu is the narrative. Not what happens, but how what happens is told. If the no-confidence motion had passed, the narrative that would have dominated Israeli discourse would have been Haredi draft exemption.

If that had happened, religious Zionist parties opposing Smotrich, like Bennett, and the new party of the "Reservists" led by Yoaz Handel, would have gained momentum. Yuli Edelstein would have been welcomed with open arms by Bennett.

This danger ultimately reunited the Haredim with Bibi, and Bibi will try in the near future to push aside the exemption narrative in favor of other narratives, which increases the danger of war with Iran—though I don't believe it will happen, as Bibi knows. Trump is using the Israeli threat as pressure on Iran, and he is determined to achieve an agreement.

Therefore, the narrative of absolute victory is about to return to our lives in a big way, and with it, the postponement of the hostage deal.

But here the IDF enters the picture. The Chief of Staff—on the very day of the debates—went down to Gaza to clarify that the IDF will not continue fighting in Gaza indefinitely, and an IDF representative to the Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee said that the IDF is about to send 50,000 draft notices to Haredim. In other words: Chief of Staff Zamir himself will not let cunning politics erode the IDF.

So, the exemption narrative will not easily yield its place to the narrative of absolute victory—not without a real fight…