Ahead of President Trump's historic visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, three Gaza-related issues are on the agenda — the renewal of "intense warfare" immediately after the visit, some form of a hostage deal, and the resumption of aid to Gaza.

Bottom line: if none of these matters materialize before the visit, it will seal the fate of the flagship American diplomatic initiative — the establishment of an axis between Sunni Arab states and Israel. We hope this isn't permanent. We hear on the sidelines that President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is returning to activity, likely to salvage the Israel-Saudi alliance. But if this entire project fails, Yahya Sinwar didn't die in vain — the primary goal of the October 7 massacre to derail this project was achieved. Indeed, the Gaza war has buried the project, hopefully not forever.

When examining the contacts to renew aid to Gaza, the first thing to note is that Saudi Arabia and Egypt are absent from it. In other words: the moves in Gaza align with the new trend in US-Saudi relations without Israel.

To date, the American companies that will provide aid have not yet been announced, and for good reasons — it's unclear who will fund them and to what extent they'll violate international law.

Previous attempts to distribute aid not through UNRWA were funded by Qatar. Qatar also has the most experience in aid distribution through its established fund, "The Qatari Committee for the Reconstruction of Gaza." Of course, amid the war, this committee is not functioning, but Qatar has its people and connections for future aid distribution, who are Hamas members. In other words, whoever tasks Qatar with responsibility for aid preserves Hamas as the aid conduit, contrary to Israel's stated position.

The organizations currently mentioned to take responsibility for aid are the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), headed by Nobel Peace Prize laureate David Beasley, and the American security company Safe Reach Solutions (SRS).

According to several sources, Qatar has funded these companies until now, and Egypt agreed as its personnel were given roles in the aid mechanism. But all this collapsed when Israel violated its agreement with Hamas to move to phase B and renewed the war.

This meant that in the "day after" scenario, Israel designated Qatar, not the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to manage Gaza.

But now, with the "Qatargate" scandals making headlines in Israel, Qatar is not eager to fund the aid companies. As for the UAE, I personally met an emissary from the Emirates a year ago who came specifically to Jerusalem to inform the Israeli government that the Emirates had withdrawn from any role in the day after. I'm not aware of any change in this position, and we should monitor Trump's visit and Jared Kushner's involvement to see if conditions for a change in position might emerge.

And what could change the conditions? Here we enter the second problem. David Beasley is a UN man. As things are currently planned, with aid zones in the southern Gaza Strip, this means — as UN agencies and Arab countries understand it — that in the current plan, Israel seeks to evacuate Gazans from the northern Strip to the south, which borders on war crimes, and nobody wants to get bogged down in this quagmire.

In an interim assessment, until matters are fully clarified — the Gaza war has indeed blown up the normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and ironically, Sinwar can smile to himself from above. The aspects of transferring hungry people also reduce the chances of implementing the plan.

Is this the end of the story? Probably not. Trump needs to come with achievements to Saudi Arabia. President Sisi said he trusts Trump to end the war. So do we.