While we still don't know what caused the major fires on Independence Day, there is a high probability that they were indeed acts of arson with a deliberate hand behind them—Fatah cells in Samaria.
If these were indeed acts of arson, they should be viewed as another phase in the unending Palestinian intifadas against Israel.
Why Now and Why Fires?
The idea of developing an intifada through arson was conceived by the head of Fatah's military wing, Khalil al-Wazir, Abu Jihad, who was later assassinated by Israel at his home in Tunisia.
In those days—the 1980s—the Palestinian internal leadership tried to develop a model of struggle against Israel that would be non-violent and popular, in order to present a competing model to the armed struggle of the PLO. The PLO leadership in Tunisia sought to undermine the internal leadership, which had failed to unite and establish political ties with Israel. Abu Jihad planned attacks that would overshadow the popular struggle, including initiating a wave of fires in Israeli forests, culminating in the Carmel forests and Sha'ar HaGai.
Not every wave of fires was the result of arson, such as the massive fire in the Carmel forests that broke out after the intifada due to negligence by those who lit a bonfire. But a significant portion of the destruction of our forests was the result of Palestinian initiative.
Abu Jihad's slogan was "to set the ground ablaze beneath the occupiers' feet."
With the failure of the intifada, "the fire died down" and the phenomenon largely disappeared. When the Second Intifada—Yasser Arafat's terrorist campaign—erupted, there was no longer any need for arson, as PLO terrorism led the struggle with a dense series of deadly attacks in Israeli cities.
Fortunately, Israeli Arabs learned lessons from the failure of the intifadas and distanced themselves from Palestinians in the Palestinian Authority. Arabs in Israel are in the process of integration into Israeli society, including those in East Jerusalem.
This does not mean that there won't be arsonists from among Israeli Arabs and East Jerusalem residents. If there is a directing hand, it may actually want to sabotage the integration processes of Israeli Arabs.
The Return of Arson on a Large Scale
Now that the phenomenon of arson has returned in a big way, we need to understand what happened and whether "the fire will spread" to include arson by Israeli Arabs as a phenomenon—not just as individuals.
First, it should be noted that the Independence Day arsons were organized, and according to admissions, they originated from Fatah cells in Nablus and Samaria, who also took graphic responsibility. In other words: as part of the action itself, they prepared to exploit its propaganda effect.
This is reminiscent of the terrorist intifada when, as part of the suicide bomber's preparation, a budget was allocated for announcements, video clips, and printing inflammatory material to recruit the next in line, which Israel found in the documents seized during the intifada.
As such, this is currently a phenomenon between Israel and Palestinians in Samaria, an extension of the military conflict already occurring between the IDF and refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm. Since Fatah cells cannot find an equivalent response to the IDF, they resort to the method of fires.
But there is another reason why fires specifically: Palestinians are looking for a response to the wave of fires and property damage in Palestinian villages in Samaria carried out by hilltop youth, this time backed by the Ministry of Defense, where the hilltops youth controls everything related to Judea and Samaria.
It is regrettable to say, but the Palestinian response—if indeed it is a response—plays into the hands of the coalition, which is not concerned with the country's interests, but rather the opposite—because quiet is "mud." They want these disturbances as part of the "Decisive Plan" that believes the worse things get, the better.
The "Decisive Plan" and Political Motivations
The Decisive Plan is the transfer of Palestinians and their expulsion to Jordan in order to annex Judea and Samaria to Israel. To achieve the transfer effect, provocations must be carried out in Palestinian villages to prompt a response.
Benyamin Netanyahu is going along with his coalition partners for other reasons—the trial, of course, and perhaps to create a new security crisis that will pre-empt the publication of the Shin Bet investigation into "Qatar-gate."
For the first time, at the Bible Quiz, he stated that victory in the war is preferable to freeing the hostages, and contrary to all state logic, his coalition truly intends to renew the intense war in Gaza, at the expense of the hostages.
Smotrich wants to establish settlements, but Bibi wants to prevent a situation where he will take the witness stand for the prosecution's investigation. So, they are heating up all fronts, including Lebanon and Syria, whichever comes first.
State Institutions Transforming into Militias
So the fire war will intensify because both sides want it, and on the margins, we should note a semantic change in the name of the Israel Prison Service to "National Incarceration Organization."
I noticed this when passing by Ofer Prison, with the new name painted on the entire prison wall.
What does this mean? The State of Israel is dismantling its state institutions and turning them into militias. Ben Gvir wants to return to the days of the "National Military Organization," on the pre-state era, and he is starting with the prison guards militia.
The police militia has been halted for now in an agreement between Ben Gvir and Attorney General Miyara, but I guess Ben Gvir will break the agreement the moment he can—and he will be able to—and then we will get the "National Police Organization."
And Ben Gvir is also responsible for the Fire and Rescue Authority—future "National Fire Organization," and as the one responsible for the height of the flames, there is cause for concern.
פנחס ענברי - מזרח תיכון מסובך במילים פשוטות 