1. From President Trump's perspective, the entire Gaza issue needs to be resolved before his visit to Saudi Arabia.
  2. Egypt wants the deal finalized ahead of the major donors' conference it is planned for next month in Cairo. The United States initially distanced itself from the conference, viewing it as primarily a European affair, but has moved closer due to Egypt's shifting stance on the collection of Hamas weapons.
  3. The issue of Hamas weapons — Saudi Arabia and the United States demand Hamas be disarmed, while Qatar opposes this. Egypt understands that it would be expected to implement disarmament, so initially avoided taking a position. Recently, Egypt's stance has shifted, and they have expressed support for disarming Hamas, though it remains unclear if this represents genuine change or merely lip service.
  4. The question of disarming Hamas divides the organization itself. While Khalil al-Hayya, who is currently in Cairo as the Hamas/Gaza leader, stated that Hamas would agree to an inter-Arab/international force entering Gaza to collect weapons (which may have influenced Egypt's apparent change in position), the Hamas/Qatar faction firmly opposes disarmament under any scenario. For them, this is a red line.
  5. President Sisi traveled to Doha to clarify this issue with Qatar's Emir. It is not known whether his discussions with the Emir were successful.
  6. The power distribution within Hamas is therefore: Hayya as the official Gaza leader, though it's unclear how effective his title is in the current anarchic conditions spreading across Gaza; the Hamas leadership in Doha, which statistically echoes Qatar's messaging; and Khaled Mashal, who no longer handles Hamas affairs but serves as the Emir's confidant in destabilizing regimes across the Arab region, with Jordan as the current target (the reports published this week about the Muslim Brotherhood arming themselves in Jordan are likely related to Khaled Mashal's work from Syria).
  7. What interests us Israelis is the cooperation between Israel and Qatar. Israel and Qatar are working to thwart the hostage deal in order to prevent ending the war. For Qatar, this is important because of the quality footage for Al Jazeera showing Gaza's destruction, and for Israel because Netanyahu's promise to Smotrich to renew settlements in Gaza underpins his government's continuation, alongside his promise to Ben Gvir to build a synagogue on the Temple Mount.
  8. These promises also serve Qatar, as riots on the Temple Mount provide better footage than the destruction in Gaza.
  9. Ostensibly, Saudi Arabia's demand to disarm Hamas aligns with Netanyahu's demand, but not really. For Saudi Arabia, this is a condition for entering the post-war scenario in Gaza; for Netanyahu, it's the opposite — to obstruct any progress because he wants total dismantling here and now without ending the war, as a pretext to prolong the conflict while claiming "Hamas is to blame."
  10. Is Netanyahu aware of what he's doing? Certainly. He himself told the hostages' families: "Hamas aren't stupid. They won't agree to (my) terms."
  11. In conclusion: Before Trump's visit to Riyadh, the Gaza war needs to be concluded. Egypt and Saudi Arabia support this, Qatar claims to support it but actually opposes it, and Israel officially opposes it. Beneath all the fake news and misleading information from Jerusalem, the Israel-Qatar alliance continues, essentially undermining Trump's policy to put Saudi Arabia as his basic pillar in the M