Benjamin Netanyahu's success in passing the budget yesterday and this morning's law to change the Judicial Appointments Committee demonstrates that Netanyahu has managed to stabilize his government, and it appears that this government may indeed complete its term.

Moreover, the Prime Minister's political success significantly diminishes the possibility that he could be declared unfit for office. After all, someone who manages to overcome all obstacles can hardly be labeled as incapacitated.

However, even as Netanyahu has succeeded in dismissing the weak opposition, intimidating the fragile judges including the Supreme Court itself, and bringing the police under his authority, his excessive confidence may lead him to collide with an insurmountable wall that could bring him down—the security establishment, specifically the Shin Bet and the IDF.

Regarding the Shin Bet, when following the statements of Netanyahu's supporters, they are not only attacking the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, but the institution itself, which they refer to as a "secret service" as if it were a private security company or a foreign intelligence agency. Following Netanyahu's sophisticated method—when planning something harmful, he accuses his enemies of the same plan—if his people talk about the Shin Bet as a "secret organization," it signals exactly what they themselves are planning.

It would be incorrect to extend the collapse of politics, police, and the justice system to the Shin Bet and IDF.

Concerning the IDF, we've seen that the new Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, set boundaries for the Defense Minister immediately after his appointment. The impression is that Zamir was willing to be a figurehead, but not a doormat. He will undoubtedly obey the political echelon regarding the dangerous plans for renewing the war in Gaza, but not regarding decisions that would expose IDF soldiers to arrest in Europe when they travel abroad.

As for the Shin Bet—it likely possesses sufficient information about Netanyahu's and his family's allegedly improper conduct. The agency is careful not to reveal anything, as part of its democratic tradition of non-interference in Israeli political life. However, the Shin Bet Law also obligates it to protect Israeli democracy.

So, while the likelihood of a declaration of incapacity has dramatically decreased, the probability of implementing the Shin Bet Law regarding the protection of democracy is increasing, especially in light of the investigations into "Koregate."

Will Netanyahu succeed in shutting down the investigations and averting the threat of democratic protection measures? Highly doubtful. The matter is pending before the Supreme Court. Netanyahu is trying to convince everyone that the Koregate investigations began after he decided to dismiss the Shin Bet chief, but the timeline doesn't support him. It won't be difficult to prove that the dismissal is a result of the investigation—not the other way around.

As for dismissing the Attorney General—the chances are even slimmer, because the Appointments Committee is incomplete, some of its members have conflicts of interest, and the Attorney General's position in the Supreme Court is much stronger than Netanyahu's.

If so, Ronen Bar and Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara remain in their positions. Netanyahu has chosen to confront them, and it's uncertain whether he will survive this collision with the iceberg this time.

So what will he do? It's worth noting that the decision on the Judicial Appointments Committee will only take effect in the next Knesset term. Therefore, since Netanyahu is driven primarily by his legal concerns, there's an increased likelihood that he would be interested in early elections. He estimates that he would win these elections too, knowing the opposition's weakness, and then he could expedite the change to the committee that would free him from his trial.

This could also freeze Smotrich and Ben Gvir within a government that would be free to pursue Trump's framework for peace with Saudi Arabia, without the possibility of bringing it down.

Unthinkable? Why not?