In my BBC Arabic interview last night, I discussed how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sending mixed messages – telling his government he's returning to war and ruling out a Phase 2 deal, while simultaneously assuring the Trump administration he's proceeding with the hostage agreement without resuming combat. The outcome – whether completing or canceling the deal – will depend on who exerts more pressure, and I believe it will be Trump.
Nevertheless, Phase 2 presents objective challenges, such as the potential release of Marwan Barghouti or a complete withdrawal from Gaza, which would pose significant challenges from Smotrich and his allies. Time will tell.
Therefore, I assessed that instead of proceeding to Phase 2, they will likely extend Phase 1 with additional rounds of prisoner and hostage exchanges.
Yesterday's return of casualties' bodies has traumatized Israeli society, creating pressure to complete the deal. However, this government remains unmoved by the Kaplan protests, which have lost momentum. Only American pressure on Netanyahu could drive these agreements to completion.
I also assessed that Israel cannot fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip unless Hamas is replaced by another political entity. However, Israel has undermined all alternatives that emerged at the war's onset.
Israel will insist on maintaining a buffer zone within Gaza, as existed previously, to prevent any approach to the border. Whether IDF forces will be stationed within or outside this buffer zone remains to be determined. In Lebanon, Israel maintains control of strategic areas until the Lebanese army can fully deploy south of the Litani River – this could serve as a model for Gaza as well."
פנחס ענברי - מזרח תיכון מסובך במילים פשוטות 