As things appeared at the end of the week, the hostage deal will continue, and furthermore—barring any government tricks and maneuvers, or unforeseen difficulties from the Arab side—the third phase will also materialize. After President Trump stated he wants to see all hostages released in a single phase, the chances of this happening have increased.

The turning point toward ending the war could come at the Arab Summit scheduled for the 27th of the month in Cairo, where Arab nations will adopt a unified position regarding Gaza's future.

After Hamas officially announced its commitment to the agreements, Netanyahu's constant excuse that "Hamas is to blame" has been undermined.

However, significant obstacles remain, and despite all the optimism that "this time it will succeed," the hurdles ahead must be examined with open eyes.

The major problem lies on the Israeli side, as implementing all phases effectively means the war is over. Netanyahu's challenge is to avoid ending the war, or if ending it, to do so without Smotrich's resignation. At this stage, he's deceiving Smotrich by suggesting he'll thwart the deal by making the next phase contingent upon Hamas rule ending.

Two points should be noted here. First, Hamas remained the governing force in Gaza because Netanyahu wanted it that way. The alleged connections between his office and Qatar might hint at why Netanyahu preferred Hamas over all alternatives that began operating in southern Gaza, such as Egypt, the UAE, and Indonesia.

Netanyahu closed the Rafah crossing to establish Kerem Shalom crossing for Qatar's benefit, as Qatar was the exclusive Arab power operating in Gaza.

Currently, there's activity at Rafah preparing for Arab aid entry, with the main issue being that most aid comes from UNRWA, whose entry into Gaza will challenge the Knesset's fake anti-UNRWA law. The question is whether UNRWA aid will enter only after the complete evacuation of the Philadelphia Corridor, or if a solution will be found to allow UNRWA aid entry now.

Meanwhile, after Egypt closed the crossing to Gazan patients and their families following Trump's plan, Egypt has reopened the crossing to accept patients and their families into Egypt.

The opening of the Rafah crossing is a positive sign ahead of the Cairo summit, as—according to Arab sources—decisions will be made regarding the post-Hamas era. The main emerging decision is that the Arab League will task Egypt with entering Gaza to "restore order," similar to the 1976 decision that authorized Syria to end the Lebanese civil war under the banner of Arab League peacekeeping forces.

Egypt is reluctant to take this role, preferring that a body agreed upon by both Fatah and Hamas do so. However, following Trump's pressure regarding Gazan migration to Egypt and Egypt's firm opposition to this plan, there's a good chance they will ultimately accept this role.

Egypt tried to form a consensus between Hamas and Ramallah for a new body to represent post-war Gaza. According to the Egyptian perspective, any formulation for Gaza's future must look northward—to the West Bank. They want their involvement in Gaza to have a horizon for a Palestinian state that includes the West Bank. Currently, this is a problem delaying the decision and making it difficult for Netanyahu to keep Smotrich in his coalition.

Another issue concerning the Arab world is Abbas's "stubbornness," as Arab sources noted. All Egyptian efforts to convince Abbas to "go with the flow" have failed; he refuses to hear about any partnership with Hamas and wants everything for himself but is unwilling to go down to Gaza and get his hands dirty with the hard work.

The emerging position ahead of the Cairo conference is to make decisions that will force Abbas to show flexibility, or else—the Arab world will have to deal with Trump's Riviera plans without being able to present their own alternatives.