
The agreement with Hamas has finally been reached, officially defined as a ceasefire agreement, though a more accurate definition would be a war termination agreement. However, Netanyahu's last-minute maneuvers forecast the difficulties between the first phase and subsequent phases, primarily stemming from the inability to maintain the far-right government over time.
The main issue lies in the agreement's wording. As long as the title remains a "phased ceasefire agreement," Netanyahu can somehow keep Ben Gvir and Smotrich in his coalition. However, if it's termed as the end of the war—as President Biden immediately defined it—his government will collapse, as evidenced by the marathon talks he held with Smotrich on Wednesday.
How did Netanyahu try to convince Smotrich to remain in the government? Through two main arguments that don't necessarily align. First, after the initial phase, they would return to war, following the format of the first ceasefire. Second, the Trump administration would legitimize illegal West Bank settlements and approve an extensive annexation plan.
Smotrich, in his brazen manner, demanded the dismissal of IDF Chief of Staff Halevi as part of his conditions for staying in the government. In other words: completing the hilltop youth's takeover of the Defense Ministry, the Kahanization of the IDF, and bringing destruction to the West Bank after Israel devastated Gaza.
Netanyahu has no problem approving these demands because he has no intention of fulfilling them. He knows well that Trump's next stop is the Israel-Saudi agreement, and all of Smotrich's demands are the opposite of what Saudi Arabia requires: "something concrete toward realizing a Palestinian state." Igniting more Hawaras in the West Bank doesn't meet Saudi standards.
Broadly speaking, the Israel-Saudi agreement represents Israel's exit from the complete right-wing ghetto into the regional space, preferring alliances with "gentiles" over Jewish isolationism—not to mention stabilizing the status quo on the Temple Mount through a new "guardianship" of Islamic nations that would end the messianic delusions of Ben Gvir, Smotrich, and their rabbis.
Thus, all the "crises" we witnessed yesterday weren't between Israel and Hamas, but between Netanyahu and Smotrich. Netanyahu tried, through his known tactics, to create crises where "Hamas is at fault" to build trust with Smotrich regarding his intention to violate the agreement in later stages.
But Netanyahu lied to Smotrich, and Smotrich knows Netanyahu is lying, yet he remains in the game—for now—to extort the Chief of Staff's dismissal and implement the West Bank decisive plan, which won't happen.
One of Netanyahu's problems with the new agreement is the Rafah crossing, which will open in the first phase, including the thinning of IDF forces along the Philadelphi Corridor.
According to the old formulas, the Rafah crossing was supposed to open in the final stages, but the fake UNRWA law necessitated opening the crossing now, as the law prohibits Israel from having any contact with the UN refugee agency. Since the first phase is humanitarian, and there's no alternative to UNRWA—as Israel's closure of the crossing blocked any alternative—there was no choice but to immediately open the "total victory" Rafah crossing under Egyptian management. This, more than anything else, will symbolize the defeat of the far-right government's messaging strategy, which prefers slogans over rational considerations.
And in the return of our daughters and sons, we shall find comfort.
