The question is whether Ben Gvir's thuggish behavior stems from his natural character as a hooligan, or if additionally – after Netanyahu brought him into the inner sanctum of "cabinet meetings" and "briefings" – he learned something that compelled him to act. That something might be that Netanyahu will soon have to choose between him and Trump, and Ben Gvir has no doubt whom Netanyahu will choose.

Why would Netanyahu choose Trump at the expense of his "64-seat bloc"? Because Trump intends to establish a Middle East alliance centered on Israel and Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia has already announced it will only join this alliance if Netanyahu removes Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Saudi Arabia is not demanding the establishment of a Palestinian state, but rather progress toward one. However, the demand to remove the representatives of the "Hilltop Youth" from the government is absolute, and Saudi Arabia will not compromise on this.

In the recent interview by outgoing Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, he said that the "day after" plan for Gaza is ready for implementation and is only waiting for an agreement with Hamas. Netanyahu won't dare to thwart Trump right as he enters the White House, and thus one can conclude that Ben Gvir and Smotrich will resign on their own, since they've already secured their budgets, and all that remains is for them to compete with each other for the post-Netanyahu era – which they'll better do from the opposition.

When we understand that Trump's entry to the White House is the real driving force behind many other developments, we must also examine the unprecedented clashes between Palestinian National Security and the armed groups in Jenin, which have already claimed more than 10 casualties and dozens of wounded on both sides, including civilians and a journalist, with battles continuing and casualties mounting.

According to our sources in Ramallah, PLO leaders tried to persuade Trump not to enter into a direct confrontation with Hamas, but rather to accept the Egyptian initiative to create a partnership with it in Gaza, beginning with joint management of the Rafah crossing, which would later develop into a Palestinian national unity government.

Abbas rejected the Egyptian initiative, and in response, Egypt decided to proceed with Hamas local administration only, meaning: Hamas remains in Gaza, and Abbas is now fighting for his relevance in the West Bank. This is the first stage. After proving his ability to control the West Bank, he can claim relevance to Gaza as well. How is this connected to Trump? Well, Abbas made the decision to clash with Hamas in Jenin instead of reaching agreements with it in Gaza after a conversation with Trump. Did he receive promises from Trump? If so, it's connected to Saudi Arabia. What can we base this assessment on? On the exchanges between Ramallah and Islamic Jihad. After the Authority decided to close Qatar's Al-Jazeera station, spokespersons for the terrorist organization accused Ramallah of betraying the "Muqawama" (resistance), which is a sacred value for Arabs. Incidentally, this was Al-Jazeera's main line of attack against the Authority and the primary reason for closing the problematic station. The PLO, which by definition is a resistance movement, cannot accept accusations of betraying the Muqawama.

Ramallah's response was particularly interesting. It described Islamic Jihad's position as "mental illness" and criminal ignorance of what's happening in the world and "the plans for the Middle East." In other words: the Israel-Saudi alliance that could come at the Palestinians' expense if they don't come to their senses.

During outgoing President Joe Biden's term, his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken demanded structural reforms from Abbas, which Abbas rejected. Did Abbas offer military suppression of Hamas instead of structural reforms in his conversation with Trump? It's possible.

If Egypt proceeds with Hamas in managing Gaza, will the Palestinian Authority proceed with Jordan? To clarify this, we need to look at King Abdullah's throne speech on the eve of Assad's fall and the establishment of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in neighboring Syria. What he said then has only become sharper after the drama in Syria.

The King also spoke about the need to prepare for regional challenges, and this time Jordan won't boycott the regional economic conferences (meaning: the Abraham Accords), "and will take with it the Palestinian brothers." Have the King and Abbas already agreed on joint membership in the Abraham Accords with the establishment of the Israel-Saudi alliance? Is Saudi Arabia's demand to remove Ben Gvir and Smotrich based on promises Saudi Arabia made to the Palestinians and Jordan?

For Abbas, this could be critical. The campaign he's waging against the Hamas-Islamic Jihad alliance exposes him to lethal criticism, because in the very days he's acting against the Palestinian brothers in Jenin, the Hilltop Youth continue to rampage in Palestinian villages.

The danger is that if after Abbas gains legitimacy following successes in Jenin – which, by the way, the campaign has not yet been decided – and the Hilltop Youth continue to rampage in Palestinian villages, Abbas will be forced to intervene to defend the villages.

The whole campaign began after it was discovered that the terrorists in Jenin were preparing severe attacks against the settlements. Will the circle close here, and in order not to disappoint Trump, will Netanyahu be forced to fire his main partners, not to mention taking initiative against the Hilltop Youth?

Let's not get carried away…