After Assad’s Downfall – What Next?

Two dramatic developments are unfolding before our eyes – the rapid collapse of the Assad regime, and reports of a hostage deal that might finally be coming to fruition. Although there's no direct connection between these two developments, they are both linked to the upcoming Trump White House era, or more specifically: whether U.S. policy will lean on Qatar or Saudi Arabia.

Bottom line: Qatar and Turkey stand behind the group that has taken control of Syria, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are attempting to establish connections with other opposing groups.

The first clear signal came when President-elect Trump warned Hamas about the consequences of sabotaging a hostage deal before his White House entry. A flurry of activity began when reports emerged that Qatar had expelled Hamas's top leadership from its territory. I don't believe this happened – we've seen no evidence of it – but the mere report indicates pressure on Qatar.

With Qatar absent from the mediation picture, Egypt stepped in forcefully. What's currently on the table is the Egyptian proposal, which discusses a time-limited ceasefire, release of hostages on humanitarian priority (as if releasing everyone isn't a humanitarian priority), massive increase in aid to Gaza residents, opening of the Rafah crossing with Palestinian Authority representatives facing Egyptian border officers – meaning Israel would need to evacuate the Philadelphi Corridor, the symbol of total victory.

This might explain why Netanyahu sent the Shin Bet chief, Ronen Bar, to Turkey – not as a coordination step regarding developments in Syria, but presumably to bring Qatar back into the picture. Egypt's leading position implies preference for the Saudi axis, while Netanyahu prefers Qatar, as a Qatari initiative would keep the Rafah crossing closed, blocking Egypt's and the UAE's renewed entry into Gaza, without having to explain to the Ben Gvir government why PA representatives should be allowed into Gaza (though it's uncertain they would come, after previous PA representatives were eliminated by Hamas). Instead of evacuating Philadelphia Corridor, Israel would agree to evacuate the Netzarim Corridor. While the Netzarim Corridor is more important to Israel, the Philadelphi Corridor is more important to Bibi.

If indeed the Shin Bet chief travelled to Turkey to bring Qatar back, this could suggest that the American diplomatic meetings with Netanyahu and Qatar's prime minister were initiated by Bibi to prevent Egypt from remaining the primary mediator.

Netanyahu's initiative to connect Qatar with Turkey at this time raises questions in light of developments in Syria. To understand the Israeli context of these developments, one needs to understand what the "Organization for the Liberation of Greater Syria" – "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" is.

This organization was originally established as "al-Nusra," and was identified as aligned with ISIS, but this is a mistake. Al-Nusra was established as the military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, connected to Qatar and Turkey. Qatar provides funding, while Turkey provides training and equipment. Moreover, the organization's leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, was a personal friend of Khaled Mashal when Mashal headed Hamas's Politburo in Damascus. Mashal established the first cells, under host Assad's nose, of what would later become al-Nusra. The Palestinian part was called "Aknaf Bait al-Maqdis" (Jerusalem's Environs), while the non-Palestinian part was called Nusra, and later, after moving to Turkish Idlib, changed its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

The mistake in identifying the organization as ISIS stems from the leader's, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani's, beginnings under ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's shadow. However, he split with him over global jihad, returned to Syria to liberate only Syria, and connected with Qatar and Turkey, through whom he informed the West that he's not part of global jihad, and his concern is only liberating Syria – albeit "Greater" Syria, which includes us, Jordan, and Lebanon.

He made his moves in Syria together with Khaled Mashal, when the latter was Politburo chief and betrayed Assad, as they jointly established the first cells of the rebellion. Jolani established al-Nusra and Mashal established "Jerusalem's Environs," the Palestinian name for al-Nusra.

In other words, after we defeat Hamas in Gaza, we'll get Hamas's twin on the Golan border, along with Turkey. This might sound a bit sweeping, and indeed the developments should be monitored.

Our greatest asset is the significant sympathy we've gained following the blows we've dealt to the hated Hezbollah and Iran. We must capitalize on this sympathy, and there isn't much time to waste.