# Lebanon and Syria: A Shifting Demographic Landscape and Its Geopolitical Implications

In the midst of ongoing conflicts, a significant demographic shift is reshaping Lebanon's social and political landscape. This transformation, largely overlooked by Lebanese media, has far-reaching implications for the region and Israel's strategic position.

## The Unacknowledged Demographic Revolution

Lebanese media reporting on the current war fails to address a crucial development: the massive displacement of millions, a process that began with the Syrian civil war and traces back to the influx of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in 1948. This ongoing migration has effectively transformed Lebanon into a Sunni-majority state.

Just as Lebanon refused to acknowledge the reality of Palestinian refugees, confining them to closed camps, it now struggles to recognize the presence of Syrian refugees and the recent northward movement of Shiites from southern Lebanon to Beirut.

Lebanese media largely ignores this demographic shift, occasionally mentioning it only in the context of rising crime rates among the displaced. Notably, many Syrian Sunni refugees are reluctant to return home, preferring to settle permanently in Lebanon.

## Long-term Implications

This demographic realignment could potentially resolve Lebanon's longstanding sectarian issues, completing a cycle from a Christian-majority state to a Shiite-dominated one, and potentially to a Sunni-majority nation in the future.

This shift could benefit Israel if it successfully renews its reconciliation process with the Sunni-led bloc, including Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and Egypt. The Sunni leadership, viewing itself as the rightful authority in the Levant, may be uniquely positioned to lead Lebanon towards peace with Israel.

## Immediate Consequences

The Arab Spring's upheavals have effectively nullified the Palestinian "right of return" issue. The destruction of refugee camps in Syria and the demographic changes in Lebanon are transforming Palestinians into part of the broader Sunni population, potentially facilitating strategic moves between Israel and Jordan without the fear of a mass Palestinian return.

This shift also impacts Jordan, where Syrian and Iraqi refugees have made the concept of an "alternative Palestinian state in the East Bank" unfeasible.

## Regional Power Dynamics

The demographic changes are influencing Assad's behavior in Syria. Hezbollah, wary of the growing Sunni presence in Lebanon, is pressuring Assad to repatriate Syrian refugees. Assad's refusal has strained relations between Hezbollah and the Syrian regime.

Assad's indifference to Hezbollah's current crisis stems partly from Hamas's betrayal during the Syrian civil war. Khaled Mashal, while based in Damascus, covertly established Sunni rebel cells against the Alawite regime, a betrayal Assad hasn't forgotten.

## Geopolitical Realignment

Facing Iranian pressure, Assad is deepening his reconciliation with the UAE and solidifying his return to the Arab League. Saudi Arabia remains cautious about this development.

Lebanon, including some senior Hezbollah figures, is distancing itself from Gaza. This disconnect was evident in the disagreements between Lebanon's President Mikati and the Iranian Foreign Minister.

## The October 7th Attack and Its Aftermath

New information suggests that Sinwar, Hamas's leader, called Saleh al-Arouri just 30 minutes before the October 7th attack, demanding that Nasrallah be informed of an opportunity to strike Israel from the north. This revelation adds context to the coordinated planning between Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad for a synchronized attack on Israel.

Ultimately, only Iran fully supported Sinwar's decision. Hezbollah, despite initial reluctance, continues fighting under Iranian pressure.

## Looking Ahead

As tensions mount between Iran and Hezbollah on one side and the Lebanese political system on the other, with even some Hezbollah leaders expressing discomfort with Iranian pressure, the question remains: Will this accumulated tension lead to an internal explosion? How will it affect Syria, Israel's ongoing ground maneuver, and future UN Security Council resolutions? Only time will tell.