The ground incursion in southern Lebanon began after an agreement with the United States that it would be limited in depth, and that the IDF would not remain in the narrow strip for long. Instead, it would withdraw once it completes its mission to ensure the return of northern residents to their homes. Within these parameters, the ground maneuver can be defined as self-defense, not occupation.

 This is not expected to be a simple operation, as the area is riddled with tunnels loaded with numerous weapons, requiring careful maneuvering.

It's worth noting that while it was reported that Biden was supposed to call Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding the ground incursion, he did not. Instead, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin coordinated it with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. They trust Gallant, but Netanyahu a bit less.

Now, the question arises – what's next in Lebanon? This question is related to the question of what comes after the war in Gaza.

The difference between Lebanon and Gaza is that in Lebanon there's an address – the Lebanese government and the state of Lebanon itself. In Gaza, no one considers talking to Sinwar, and no one trusts Ramallah.

The situation in Lebanon is that while Israel has a free hand to eliminate Hezbollah, this is kept within the bounds of self-defense. Israel does not have a free hand to touch Lebanon's state infrastructure, which could potentially slide into war crimes.

Regarding the situation in Lebanon, this means an opening for a new regime, free from Hezbollah's political terror that paralyzed Lebanon and allowed Hezbollah to infiltrate all government mechanisms and the army. The question is what will happen to this system once Hezbollah's terror regime is removed from Lebanon. Surprisingly, the solution for Lebanon is identical to the solution in Gaza and aligns with the American strategy of establishing an axis of moderate states in the Middle East against the Shiite arc, allowing for the establishment of a Sunni-Israeli arc on the ruins of the Shiite arc. 

Lebanon's economic collapse began when Lebanon's Sunni leader, Saad Hariri, son of the charismatic Prime Minister Rafik Hariri who was assassinated by Hezbollah, failed to meet Mohammed bin Salman's expectations and was unwilling to confront Nasrallah. As a result, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states withdrew their money from Lebanese banks, and the Land of Cedars collapsed.      

Iran and Qatar entered the vacuum, but they funded Hezbollah, and Qatar funded the Lebanese army on the condition that it wouldn't challenge Hezbollah. There was no one to care for the state of Lebanon as it sank into despair.

Now, it's time for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to return to Lebanon and rehabilitate it. The Lebanese joy over Nasrallah's elimination indicates that Saudi Arabia's return would be welcomed with open arms.

Iran is aware of this "danger," and according to reports, for the first time, it has sent actual military units to Lebanon. Although we haven't seen them in Iranian uniforms, they're likely there, and their role is to ensure that Hezbollah doesn't completely disintegrate. If Iran puts military boots on the ground in Lebanon, they will also block Saudi Arabia's return to Beirut's banks as much as they can, hopefully unsuccessfully.

This is exactly the formula for Gaza as well, but for this, Israel must open the Rafah crossing. According to reports in the Arab press, this is precisely what the United States is already discussing with Egypt.

Israel has managed to dismantle the connection between Lebanon and Gaza in the context of the Shiite arc, but it must renew it in the context of the Sunni-Israeli arc, give the United States an advantage in the confrontation with Russia and the axis of evil, and return to its natural place as a strategic asset of the United States, not a burden and a problem.