I was interviewed to Russia Today several days ago and I told them day that I didn’t know how the Geneva talks might end- but I doubted whether there will be an agreement because of the following reasons:
1. The mandate Ruhani got from Khamenei is only to remove the sanctions – not to dismantle the nuclear program.
2. There is split inside Iran between the Mullahs and Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani wants the USA, the Mullahs are with Russia. They will not let Rafsanjani succeed in order to get together with the USA
3. The Mullahs perceive Rafsanjani/Ruhani as new Gorbachov that through Glasnost with the USA dismantled the Soviet Union. The same may happen to Iran- they may well think.
4. On the same time also in the western camp- France is rock solid not to let Obama-Ruhani alliance to succeed and they hope to collect the spoils with Saudi Arabia later.
5. The USA Congress is getting more and more suspicious with Obama and may not let him make the deal.
So- the sum up: while there is a huge drive to make a deal, I saw a lot of problems that may foil it in getting through.