Translation from Israel Time.

The main fake narrative of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "pardon request" has spawned two secondary fake narratives that will occupy us during the upcoming election year.

The first fake is Netanyahu as the "national unifier," bridging the rifts in society, versus the deep state and the Kaplan anarchists who oppose the pardon and thereby deepen the divisions among the people.

The second fake is the "peace with Saudi Arabia" narrative. According to this, the alleged "deep state" is sabotaging US President Donald Trump's policy for regional peace and his coveted Nobel Peace Prize.

The secondary fakes attached to the "pardon request" are Netanyahu's fake as "national unifier" versus the "deep state" pardon opponents deepening rifts among the people, and the "peace with Saudi Arabia" fake, according to which the "deep state" is sabotaging Trump's peace policy.

As for the "national unifier" fake, this will become clear over time. But regarding the "peace with Saudi Arabia" fake, we can already assess why this won't happen, and why Netanyahu may incite Trump against the liberal camp in Israel and against the justice system, just as he acted against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, and in Brazil against the judges of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

First, the unprecedented remarks by Environmental Quality Minister Idit Silman, that Trump will punish Israel's justice if they don't grant him a pardon. These statements, one fears, are exactly the kind of content Netanyahu discusses with Trump. It's hard to believe Silman thought of this herself, or that her husband Shmulik told her.

When examining Saudi Arabia's actual attitude toward normalization with Israel, there has been no change from its basic position that it will not approach Israel as long as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich serve as ministers. When President Trump convened the Middle East summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not attend.

What blocks Saudi Arabia's path to normalization and even peace with Israel is what's happening in the West Bank and Jerusalem – namely: what Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are doing there. Saudi Arabia doesn't care whether Netanyahu receives a pardon or completes his trial.

What blocks Saudi Arabia's path to normalization and even peace with Israel is what's happening in the West Bank and Jerusalem – namely: what Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are doing there. Saudi Arabia doesn't care whether Netanyahu receives a pardon or completes his trial. If Netanyahu receives a pardon but Ben-Gvir and Smotrich continue their policies – nothing will happen to advance regional peace from their perspective. Whether Trump punishes the Israeli justice or not. That's not what will advance Trump toward a Nobel Prize. Perhaps the opposite.

Nevertheless, according to sources in Ramallah, the Palestinian Authority learned that in a conversation between bin Salman and Trump at the White House, Saudi Arabia requested not to rush progress to phase two without securing its place going forward. Saudi Arabia has interests in rapprochement with Israel that cannot be realized with Netanyahu's current government.

What are these Saudi interests? First and foremost, Iran. After all the upheavals in American policy – once Barack Obama, then Trump, followed by Joe Biden, and now Trump again – Saudi Arabia understands it cannot rely on the United States long-term. Until President Obama, American support was taken for granted. No longer. An alliance with Israel could stabilize it and inoculate it – and incidentally, Israel as well – from American fickleness.

An Israeli-Saudi alliance could also stabilize American support for stable and reliable allies, render all "talks" with Iran irrelevant, and position the United States definitively for Israel and Saudi Arabia and against Iran.

Second, and no less important – Red Sea security and unified positioning against pro-Iranian Yemen, and a joint effort to restore to Sanaa Yemen's legitimate government that was ousted by the Houthis.

Saudi Arabia sought a "ceasefire" with the Houthis because Arab states refused to mobilize for war in Yemen, and now Israel is ready. This opens new options for Saudi security regarding its control of the Hejaz region and its holy capital Mecca.

Saudi Arabia sought a "ceasefire" with the Houthis because Arab states refused to mobilize for war in Yemen, and now Israel is ready. This opens new options for Saudi security regarding its control of the Hejaz region and its holy city, Mecca. The Houthis have already fired missiles at Mecca and pose a threat to pilgrims.

When we speak of Red Sea security, we're also talking about the danger from Turkey, which seeks to establish itself militarily on African shores overlooking Hejaz, like Sudan. These efforts were temporarily rejected by the pro-Saudi government in Khartoum but achieved greater success in Somalia.

A Turkish-Qatari base in Gaza does not align with Saudi efforts to distance Turkey from the Red Sea. The special relationship between Israel and Qatar may raise suspicion in Saudi Arabia that Israel doesn't actually oppose Turkey's entry into Gaza.

In practice, Turkey is already in Gaza, and to a large extent has returned to Jerusalem. How could this have happened without Israel turning a blind eye or even quiet support? This is how the Saudis might think.

In fact, there are already early signs that Saudi Arabia is preparing to enter the broader Palestinian picture in a way that challenges Smotrich's "decisive plan" in the West Bank. After many years of withholding financial aid to the Palestinian Authority, it granted Ramallah $90 million in emergency assistance. Saudi Arabia had refrained from aiding the Authority until now but responded to the call to save the Authority because of Smotrich's economic measures against it, and to place a barrier before his decisive plan.

But what's more interesting is that Saudi Arabia has begun promoting the Palestinian private sector, and appears to be advancing aid channels to the West Bank through Palestinian economic companies rather than through the Authority, and the Authority resents this.

Why would Saudi Arabia want to promote the Palestinian private sector at the expense of the Authority? Because it wants to dismantle armed militias throughout the Middle East entirely, and it sees Fatah as an organization with a militia culture that cannot advance Saudi plans. This is also the root of its policy in Gaza and Lebanon – to dismantle Hamas and Hezbollah's weapons.

For several years now, Abbas has been distancing Qatar from Ramallah, and this is a point in his favor in Riyadh, but without transitioning to a new political culture of civil society, anti-militia, he won't be able to receive full Saudi aid. In Lebanon too, Saudi Arabia will only open its purse after Hezbollah is disarmed.

Saudi Arabia has refrained from aiding the Palestinian Authority until now, but mobilized to save it due to Smotrich's economic measures against it, and to block his decisive plan. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia began promoting the Palestinian private sector.

Saudi interest in Jerusalem requires a separate discussion, which I will do soon. One of its important aspects is distancing Turkey from the Temple Mount compound.

In Syria too, Saudi support for President Ahmad al-Sharaa, Mohammed al-Julani, is intended to curb Turkey's penetration into the country, not with much success, it must be admitted.

In any case, the pardon fake and the peace with Saudi Arabia fake will fall intertwined, but Saudi Arabia has no interest in Netanyahu's trial – as far as they're concerned, he can be acquitted or convicted. The main thing is that he doesn't touch Jerusalem and doesn't inflame the West Bank.