Netanyahu's Domestic Stability Undermines Middle East Stability and Trump's Strategic Plans

Translation from Hebrew “Israel Time”

When examining what actually happened at the emergency conference in Doha, behind the facade of solidarity with Qatar following the Israeli strike, the Arab world has not truly been convinced that there is a rift between the leading allies in the Middle East – Qatar and Israel. Time will still need to pass to see whether the attack and the growing rhetoric from Jerusalem condemning Qatar represent a genuine crisis or merely appearances and spin designed to conceal the opposite truth.

When examining the facts, Hamas leadership was not eliminated. After several days during which Hamas leadership disappeared from view, they appeared in interviews that seemed like "coordinated messaging," claiming they escaped from the room when they heard the sounds of explosions. When a Saudi intelligence officer, for example, hears this version, he wonders: if what scared them away were the sounds of explosions, they should have heard them in paradise… In other words: not "explosion sounds," but perhaps a frantic phone call that led to their rescue.

Second, after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ceremoniously announced he would visit Doha in solidarity, not only did he not come, but even to the emergency conference in solidarity with Qatar, while he did arrive, he left after a photo opportunity. The Kingdom's speech was delivered by Saudi Arabia's Prime Minister, not the head of state like the other participants.

Third, and this is a serious matter: the continuation of contacts between Israel and Syria regarding a security agreement, which means Israel is still in the Muslim Brotherhood camp alongside Qatar and Turkey, despite all the condemnations and "estrangement."

Saudi Arabia supported these contacts, but only to shake off the need to advance normalization with the Smotrich and Ben-Gvir government in Israel. But it is truly concerned about the Israeli-Qatari connection, and why Saudi Arabia is worried could be seen in the quick visit of Qatar's ruler, Sheikh Tamim, to Jordan to discuss, among other things, "economic issues."

What could these "economic issues" be? Not a Qatari aid program for Jordan, which won't come, but rather the project of transferring Qatari gas through Jordan to Syria and from there to Turkey and Europe, which is eager to free itself from dependence on Russian gas.

This plan competes with the "Peace Railway" plan from India to Israel via the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, which is also supposed to include energy pipelines connecting the moderate Middle East through Israel to Europe.

In other words: what Qatar is now examining with Jordan is a competing plan to the Peace Railway, which could perhaps be called the "Muslim Brotherhood Pipeline" from Qatar to Joulani's Syria that would make unnecessary the economic connection between Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and India to Europe. If so, the special relationship between Qatar and Israel, which according to what Arab states see is maintained, undermines the connection through Israel to Europe and transfers it to Syria.

At the Doha conference, it was strange to see President Assad limit his speech to half a minute (!), without condemning Israel. We heard not a word or half a word from Qatar about Syria's failure to stand by its side, meaning: this was coordinated, to tempt Israel to pursue the connection between Qatar and Europe through Syria, and not through Israel.

Is Israel undermining its own interests? After all the press releases from then-Transportation Minister Israel Katz, boasting about the Peace Railway to Israel, the same Katz as Defense Minister is unknowingly transferring the connection to Syria.

Why is this dangerous for Saudi Arabia? Because to transfer the gas pipelines to Jordan and from there to Syria, they need to pass through Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia will of course not agree to this, and what will Qatar do? What it knows how to do best (including within Israel…) – chaos and anarchy, through its toxic broadcasting station, Al Jazeera, which is the primary factor in instability in the Arab world, and Israel's "role" in the Muslim Brotherhood axis is to provide Al Jazeera with quality images from Gaza that stir Arab public opinion – and also in Europe. We are not saying Israel does this intentionally, God forbid, but this is the result.

If you will, from the perspective of Arab states, the publicized "estrangement" between Qatar and Israel would have had more credibility if Israel had bombed Al Jazeera's studios, which incidentally – is what Saudi Arabia and Egypt themselves planned as part of their plan to conquer Qatar. Instead, they got Hamas leadership surviving because of "explosion sounds" that were supposed to eliminate them, instead of saving them.

And again, I am not claiming that Israel is aware of what it is doing, but the special relationship with Qatar gives Al Jazeera an advantage over the media outlets of the moderate Arab world that is forced to defend itself.

And what is Saudi Arabia doing to defend against the shared threat of Israel and Qatar? Two complementary moves. First – leading the idea of recognizing a Palestinian state. This has no practical significance, except neutralizing the toxic reporting from Gaza. From the reports I received about what happened in the corridors of Doha, Abu Mazen was not received warmly, and was not treated like a groom before his wedding.

The Saudi move is a media move designed to neutralize Al Jazeera's incitement, in light of the new quality images expected to come from Gaza with the "occupation" of "total victory."

Another step is the defense alliance with Pakistan that came immediately after bin Salman's disappointment with the resilience of the Israeli-Qatari alliance, and instead of connecting India to the Mediterranean through Israel, bin Salman is going with nuclear Pakistan, India's enemy, into a defense alliance.

Will the Saudi-Pakistani "alliance" mature into a new regional reality? It's hard to know, as this would have implications vis-à-vis India, Pakistan's enemy, but here Israel enters the picture with a series of pompous declarations about "Greater Israel," and bombastic boasts by the Defense Minister about "we struck here, and we struck there," damaging Arab national pride and raising fears that after being rid – thanks to Israel – of the "Shiite Crescent" – it won't be replaced by an Israeli alliance with the moderate Sunni world, but rather a Jewish "empire"?

We know Netanyahu's need for active tension fronts – his trial – but the Arab world sees this as a danger amplified by the unbreakable connection with Qatar and the strengthening of Al Jazeera with images from Gaza's destruction.

What Trump needs to see is that Netanyahu is destroying his Nobel Prize, and America's main strategy to establish an Arab-Israeli NATO that it is leading. Instead of uniting the Arab world with Israel, Netanyahu is uniting the Arab world against Israel.

Our fortune is that the Arabs have not despaired of us completely, but complete despair may come with "total victory."