Israeli Delegation Returns from Doha in Apparent Crisis

The Israeli delegation to the Doha hostage deal negotiations has returned to Israel in what appears to be a crisis. President Trump took the trouble to call Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and it was reported that he supported Netanyahu's position that "Hamas is to blame" – but one must consider that these are last-minute maneuvers before an agreement.

This doesn't mean there aren't real problems, and what exacerbates these problems is that they're not related to the actual interests of Israel and Hamas, but to personal issues of the leadership. The breakthrough will come on the personal level of the leaders, and one can hope this will happen – Netanyahu: how he'll get out of his trial, and Hamas leadership: how they'll ensure themselves against assassinations.

Israel's Key Challenge

Regarding Israel – the key to change lies in a formula that balances the Prime Minister's interests with the state's interests, where the breaking point of the equation lies in the ability to remove Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from the government without harming Netanyahu's chances of ending his trial without conviction and without disgrace.

Hamas's Security Concerns

Regarding Hamas: Israel's assassination policy poses the question to Hamas leadership – who will guarantee that after an agreement, Israel won't assassinate us? Various Israeli government ministers don't bother to hide this intention, in addition to it being a known Israeli practice.

Therefore, Hamas demands an end to the war with a commitment that Israel won't violate the agreement and won't assassinate its leaders.

As far as is known, the United States has already given Hamas this commitment, but Hamas isn't satisfied with this because Israel refuses to announce the end of the war, and as long as the war doesn't end, the danger of assassinations also exists. After Israel violated the previous agreement and the United States backed Israel, Hamas demands more solid commitments, perhaps even involving a Security Council resolution.

Military Strategy Impact

Another factor influencing Hamas's positions is its success in guerrilla warfare against the IDF. It turns out that the change in combat methods introduced by Chief of Staff Major General Eyal Zamir, compared to his predecessor Major General Herzi Halevi's combat methods, brought the IDF into a combat system where Hamas has an advantage. The IDF entered ground combat within Gaza's ruins, where Hamas fighters could hide and surprise the IDF with deadly hit-and-run attacks, while Major General Halevi avoided entering these traps and operated against Hamas with long-range methods where the IDF has an advantage.

The advantage Hamas gained thanks to "Gideon's Chariots" tempted it to harden its positions, and its successes against the IDF demonstrated that in any future scenario, Hamas remains effectively the master of Gaza.

Settlement Politics Driving Strategy

So why did Israel prefer Hamas's trap method over long-range combat? It's not "Israel" – it's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to preserve his government. The puppet master in this government is Bezalel Smotrich, whose war goal is renewing settlements in Gaza. Bibi goes along with him not because he thinks Israel has any interest in this matter, but so Smotrich won't abandon him.

This is why the IDF mobilized so many D9 bulldozers to Gaza – all the IDF is doing today in Gaza is destroying houses and driving Gazans south, to clear the area for Smotrich and Daniella Weiss's settlement bloc. Minister Orit Strock even added that "achieving strategic goals" (meaning: settlements) are above the hostage deal.

The Price of Personal Politics

As long as Halevi's IDF stood by "Israel's" war goals – dismantling Hamas's governmental and military capabilities and returning the hostages – Israel was winning, and this reflected on its achievements – namely: the achievements of Mossad and Shin Bet heads – in negotiations with Hamas. But now, when "settlement Israel" has failed in the war, Hamas's demands have grown.

Beyond successes against the IDF, Hamas also demonstrated that it will be impossible to skip over it "the day after." While when Hamas was in a defeated mood, Khalil Hayya could agree with American envoy Adam Boehler on transferring Hamas weapons to agreed Arab or international hands as part of a comprehensive deal including prospects for a Palestinian state, now with its military successes, Hamas's willingness to hand over weapons has diminished.

Deployment Disputes

Another issue facing the agreement is IDF deployment. According to reports in Arab press, Hamas agreed to IDF deployment in the perimeter but doesn't agree to the IDF remaining in populated areas. This is actually also an interest of the state of Israel, but clashes with the Prime Minister's interests. Netanyahu's need to remain in populated areas is first – to stay in the northern Strip to push Gazans south, and in the southern Strip to maintain the tragic farce of the "American company" which is nothing but Smotrich's fantasies, which became a death trap for food seekers.

Hamas again proved that without it, aid cannot be distributed to Gazans, and this project too backfired on Israel, if Israel should have promoted this transfer project at all, which led it to disaster in the formation of the "humanitarian city" in  Rafah.

So Israel's need to maintain a buffer zone is an interest of the state of Israel, but the need to maintain areas in the north and south is Bibi's for his personal reasons.

Trump's Role

After Trump and Bibi's conversation, it was reported that "Hamas is to blame" and that following its insulting response, they would consider other ways to free the hostages.

I have reasons to believe that Trump didn't call Bibi to blame Hamas, but to advance the deal by pressuring Bibi. But Bibi asked him for a few more days, to safely reach the shore of the Knesset recess where Smotrich and Ben-Gvir won't be able to topple him when the deal details become clear.

Has President Trump become a mediator between Bibi and the state of Israel? President Trump wants to reach normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia as quickly as possible, after peace with Syria proved to be a complete fiasco. The problem: Saudi Arabia openly demands removing Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from the government.

Signs of Change

There were some preliminary signs that Bibi has already agreed and is just "putting on shows" for "the narrative." First, his agreement to allow UN aid through the Zikim crossing to the northern Strip. If aid enters the north, the need for Gazans to go south is cancelled. Second, the drastic reduction in IDF presence at “our existential rock” in Morag. The Rafah crossing is still closed, but this awaits the moment of announcing the end of the war during the Knesset recess.

In domestic policy too, Bibi is signaling direction – the quick run to the ultra-Orthodox on the conscription law. Now, when Ben-Gvir and Smotrich's participation is wavering, he needs the ultra-Orthodox with him.

Qatar's Role

Note that the United States is specifically bringing Qatar closer to the mediation talks, but this shouldn't be understood at face value. Inviting Qatar to the closer circle of negotiations is a kind of threat and pressure on it . Anyone following Al Jazeera these days cannot help but be troubled by the propaganda line of the Muslim Brotherhood channel – returning to encourage a new Arab Storm based on images of hunger in Gaza.

Qatar's supreme goal is to create chaos in the Arab world – and Israel's instability can also be understood as Qatari subversion – and images of hunger from Gaza are exceptional incitement images serving Qatar's supreme goal, so why give them up so easily? Is Trump bringing Qatar closer to prevent it from sabotaging normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel?

Conclusion

In summary: there are conflicting interests between Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu, and mediation between the two is needed to get the cart out of the mud. Is this Trump's goal, because the state of Israel's interest aligns with his vision?

There are preliminary signs that Bibi is going along with Trump, but with Bibi, preliminary signs might be misleading signs, in the best tradition of the known tricks and gimmicks, which it's doubtful whether at his advanced age he's capable of parting from.