Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conversations with President Trump did not result in a joint announcement, as expected, about ending the war—even in stages and including a hostage release deal. Instead, President Trump and the Prime Minister each responded to the meetings separately, which may indicate one of two scenarios: either there were disagreements between the two, or Netanyahu asked Trump to leave him the discretion to maneuver his government into accepting the agreements that were nevertheless reached, until the Knesset recess arrives in 3 weeks, during which the government cannot be toppled.

Therefore, while the talks will be safeguarded by the recess the agreement's publication should be calculated for within the Knesset recess period, when Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will be tied to the government. Until then, we'll hear voices of disagreement due to Israel's hardline positions, particularly regarding the "humanitarian city" in Rafah.

This is a new invention that appears in every way to be an obstacle to a deal, from Smotrich's workshop. The entire intent of the "humanitarian city"—a name chosen according to the Bibist school of saying the opposite of what you mean—is to clear living space for settlements in the northern Strip and pressure Egypt to accept Gazan refugees into its territory.

Al Jazeera published the map that Israel submitted to the mediators, and it's clear that the mediators cannot accept this—not so much because of the security perimeter protecting Israel from a new October 7th, but because of cutting off Egypt from Gaza by establishing the humanitarian city in Rafah.

It should be noted that this perimeter, at least in principle if not at the depth currently discussed, was already agreed upon with Hamas in the past. But this was an area that Hamas was not supposed to enter near the border. However, Hamas eroded this area without Israel responding, until Hamas reached the border, and the disastrous results were expressed on October 7th.

Now, it's clear that without a perimeter—even a deep one—there can be no agreement. The question is whether the IDF will remain in the perimeter or supervise it from across the border—this is still unclear. At this stage, we hear the tough talk of heroism and strength, pleasant to the ears of political Jewry—but what will the final agreement look like? Inside or outside of the perimeter? We'll live and see.

Trump-Netanyahu Disagreements

According to reports in Arab media, Trump and Netanyahu had disagreements about the veto power of the two extremists. Trump didn't understand how, after everything he did for Israel and for Netanyahu personally—including intervening in his trial and the lavish hospitality for the wife and son with royal hosting at the White House—Netanyahu still clings to Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. It was already published that Netanyahu called Smotrich frequently, meaning: Netanyahu mediated between the president of the world's greatest superpower and the leader of a party that doesn't cross the electoral threshold.

Last week, The New York Times published an article about how the two radical right leaders torpedoed a deal for Netanyahu six months ago to end the Gaza war as part of opening a process with Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia had a public position that it would not engage with Israel as long as the two were members of the government. The failure of this initiative six months ago explains why Saudi Arabia doesn't trust Netanyahu, and to convince it to change its mind about our Prime Minister, Trump must guarantee that he will use his leverage on him so that he doesn't sting them.

Qatar's Role vs. Saudi Arabia

When Saudi Arabia is absent from the negotiating table, Qatar is deep inside. The Qatari Foreign Minister accompanied Netanyahu-Trump conversations in the background, and it was reported that he was involved in mediation with Hamas. One should doubt whether mediation with Hamas was the matter for which he rushed to Washington, or rather to seize the moment when Saudi Arabia is absent and establish Qatar as the Arab power of the day after, and not Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Indonesia.

So if Qatar is in the picture, and not Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords, then Hamas also remains along with the "resistance." In other words: Qatargate.

To remind you: the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is that Saudi Arabia demands dismantling Hamas from its weapons, while Qatar opposes this.

Signs of Pending Agreements

Alongside this discouraging analysis, there are signs of agreements awaiting the Knesset recess—for example, the European Union's announcement that Israel will leverage aid to Gaza, including to the northern Strip, thus ending Smotrich's "displacement" plan and with it the vision of the new settlement bloc. Will the official announcement come during the recess?

It should be noted that the New York Times publication came immediately after Netanyahu's conversations with Trump, and Trump's heavy silence. Was this a signal from Trump to Netanyahu that more revelations await him down the line?

Trump expects from Netanyahu a return that matches the scale of the beautiful gifts he gave him. Netanyahu apparently already agreed, but asked Trump to control the narrative to preserve his government.

The fear is that Netanyahu will spin Trump like he spun Gantz—it's his nature. Let's hope for all of us that this doesn't happen.