The hostages Deal between Egypt and Qatar

"The Day After Lebanon and Gaza Wars has transformed into The Day After Trump's White House Return in two months, as the Middle Eastern system prepares for a comprehensive realignment in the new era. The bottom line presents a decisive choice between relying on Saudi Arabia or Qatar as the axis of progress across various Middle Eastern arenas.

The first overt signal came when President-elect Trump warned Hamas about the consequences of sabotaging the hostage deal before his White House entry. A flurry of activity began when reports emerged that Qatar had expelled Hamas's top leadership from its territory. I don't believe this happened – we saw no evidence of it – but the mere report indicates pressure on Qatar.

With Qatar absent from the mediation picture, Egypt stepped in forcefully. The weekend's proposal on the table is the Egyptian initiative, which calls for a time-limited ceasefire, prioritized humanitarian release of hostages (as if releasing all hostages isn't a humanitarian priority), massive increase in aid to Gaza residents, opening the Rafah crossing with Palestinian Authority representatives facing Egyptian border officers – meaning Israel would need to evacuate the Philadelphi Corridor, the symbol of Total Victory.

This might explain why Netanyahu sent the Shin Bet chief, Ronen Bar, to Turkey, presumably to bring Qatar back into the picture. Egypt's leading position implies preference over the Saudi axis, while Netanyahu prefers Qatar, as a Qatari initiative would keep the Rafah crossing closed, blocking Egypt's and the Emirates' renewed entry into Gaza. This eliminates the need to explain to Ben Gvir's government why PA representatives should be allowed into Gaza (though it's uncertain they would come, after previous PA representatives were eliminated by Hamas). Instead of evacuating Philadelphi, Israel would agree to evacuate the Netzarim route. While the Netzarim route is more important for Israel, the Philadelphi Corridor is more important for Bibi.

If indeed the Shin Bet chief traveled to Turkey to bring Qatar back in, this might suggest that the Trumps envoy meetings with Netanyahu and Qatar's Prime Minister were initiated by Bibi to prevent Egypt from remaining the primary mediator.

Netanyahu's initiative to connect Qatar with Turkey at this time raises questions in light of developments in Syria. To understand the Israeli context of these developments, one must understand what the 'Organization for the Liberation of Greater Syria' – 'Hayat Tahrir al-Sham' stands for.

This organization was originally established as 'al-Nusra', and was identified as aligned with ISIS, but this is a mistake. Al-Nusra was established as the military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and is connected to Qatar and Turkey. Qatar provides funding, while Turkey provides training and equipment.

 Moreover, the organization's leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, was a personal friend of Khaled Mashal when Mashal headed Hamas's Politburo in Damascus. Mashal established the first cells, under host Assad's nose, of what would later become the al-Nusra organization. The Palestinian section was called 'Aknaf Beit al-Maqdis', meaning 'Jerusalem's Surroundings', while the non-Palestinian section was called Nusra, and later, upon moving to Turkish Idlib, changed its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

In other words, after we eliminate Hamas in Gaza, we'll get Hamas's twin on the Golan border, along with Turkey.

Strange alignments will develop where opposite the Saudi-Emirates-Egypt axis will stand the Netanyahu-Qatar-Turkey axis that will preserve Hamas in Gaza and bring us Hamas's twin in the Golan.

Will Trump agree to this? Most likely not. His Middle East representative, Mussad Boulos, has already set the direction toward Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is already transferring aid to Lebanon alongside American elements entering Lebanon in the context of monitoring the ceasefire in the country's south, and there's a process of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Assad, because the rebels are supported by Qatar and Turkey.

The hostage deal now hangs on whether it will be handled through Egypt, which will bring in Saudi Arabia, or through Qatar, which will bring in Turkey. Trump wants Saudi Arabia, Bibi wants Qatar, and in two months – or before – comes the decision."