There are two fundamental differences between Trump's Palestinian solution from his previous term and preceding peace processes. First, the Palestinian issue would be resolved not through bilateral Israeli-PLO talks, but within a regional framework between Israel and the Sunni Arab world, led by Saudi Arabia. Second, economic benefits rather than national rights would form the foundation of the solution.
Similar principles emerge regarding Lebanon from interviews given by Trump's designated envoy, Mossad Boulos, to Lebanese media. Saudi Arabia connects these two principles, with the Israel-Saudi axis set to become the foundation for advancing Trump's plans. Netanyahu will need to abandon Qatar as his diplomatic axis in the Arab world.
Trump's previous Palestinian plans included two parts: a map for a temporary Palestinian state in two-thirds of the West Bank while maintaining settlements and establishing a new status quo in Jerusalem. From Israel's true interest perspective, starting with Jerusalem would be preferable, though this contradicts the current government's interests under Ben-Gvir, who seeks to continue destabilizing the Temple Mount.
For years, a status quo established between Israel and the Jordanian Waqf immediately after the Six-Day War divided the mosque compound and Western Wall Plaza between Islam and Judaism. The mosque compound was recognized as Islamic territory, while the Western Wall Plaza was recognized as Jewish. Israel was acknowledged as responsible for the mosque compound's security, with Jews recognized as visitors rather than worshippers.
This status quo largely served as Jerusalem's stability anchor across both parts, withstanding even the intifadas that inflamed Palestinians, largely exempting East Jerusalem from the violence raging in the West Bank.
The status quo eroded under pressure from Temple advocates within the Likud center on Jerusalem police, with prayer incidents increasingly occurring. The Israeli government has now blatantly violated this arrangement, with Ben-Gvir openly announcing plans to build a synagogue on the mount – met with telling silence from Netanyahu.
Trump previously envisioned establishing a new status quo where Jordan would no longer be the sole Arab patron of the mosques. Instead, a new Arab-Muslim patronage would be created with Jordan as just one component, and Saudi Arabia likely emerging as the leading Muslim power.
At the time, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority strongly opposed Trump's framework – Jordan due to loss of exclusivity, and the PA because its sovereignty aspirations over the mount went unrecognized. Israel remained sovereign over all Jerusalem and maintained security responsibility for the mount. The Palestinian capital was relocated to Abu Dis.
The formation of a new Temple Mount status quo shows greater feasibility than establishing a Palestinian state, though not without challenges. The new formula could serve as a model for arranging Gaza's future, with Sunni Arab states and moderate Muslim powers like Indonesia receiving operational responsibility while Israel maintains security oversight.
This framework would exclude forces opposing the Muslim Brotherhood, explaining Saudi Arabia's explicit demand to remove Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from the government as a condition for rapprochement with Israel – rather than Palestinian statehood as stipulated in the old Saudi initiative.
Despite recent heightened Saudi rhetoric supporting a two-state solution amid Gaza casualties, even recent Saudi media maintains openness to Israeli peace before Palestinian statehood. As one major Saudi newspaper put it: "If we want a more stable world…the Palestinian issue is the basic gateway that cannot be bypassed or ignored."
Trump appears to be thinking along these lines, with his appointment of evangelical Christians to senior positions, including Ambassador Mike Huckabee to Israel, ensuring Israel's place in any new Temple Mount status quo while preserving Jerusalem's unity.
Once a new status quo restores Jerusalem's stability and creates common ground for an Israeli alliance with Sunni Arab states and moderate Muslim powers like Indonesia (but not Erdogan's Turkey), the Palestinian issue can be addressed regionally as part of the Israeli-Arab alliance.
פנחס ענברי - מזרח תיכון מסובך במילים פשוטות 