Trump's Return: Netanyahu's Mixed Blessing May Prove a Poisoned Chalice

Trump's Return: Netanyahu's Mixed Blessing May Prove a Poisoned Chalice

מאת U.S. Government – Extracted

 

 The Delicate Dance of Diplomacy

While Benjamin Netanyahu publicly celebrates Donald Trump's  victory, the potential return of the former U.S. president could spell trouble for Israel's current governing coalition. If Trump revives his interrupted Middle East peace initiative, Netanyahu might find himself caught between his right-wing base and America's renewed regional ambitions.

The 2020 Plan: A Cautionary Tale

The roots of this dilemma trace back to January 2020, when Trump unveiled his Middle East peace plan in Washington. Netanyahu brought his right-wing supporters to the ceremony, but a significant misunderstanding ensued. Unable to follow the English presentation and relying on Netanyahu's selective translation, they initially celebrated what they thought was approval for Jordan Valley annexation. Their euphoria turned to shock when they realized Trump had actually proposed a provisional Palestinian state.

This revelation led prominent settler leaders, including David Elhayani, to abandon Likud in protest. Netanyahu, unwilling to confront his base, effectively sidelined Trump's flagship initiative. Sources suggest Trump felt betrayed by Netanyahu's lack of support ("welcome to the club"), explaining why the former president's recent meetings with Netanyahu required intensive lobbying from Miriam Adelson and Elon Musk to materialize.

The Saudi Connection

Trump's Palestinian proposal was intrinsically linked to a broader vision of Israeli-Saudi normalization. Unlike the UAE, which accepted assurances against Jordan Valley annexation as sufficient for the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia's self-perceived leadership role in both the Arab and Muslim worlds requires concrete progress on the Palestinian issue.

This creates a direct conflict with Netanyahu's current coalition partners. Reports indicate promises to Ben-Gvir regarding Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount, while Smotrich actively works to prevent any possibility of a Palestinian state. Recent revelations about plans by far-right ministers to "stir up" East Jerusalem further complicate Netanyahu's position between his government and the incoming Trump administration.

The Regional Peace Framework

Trump's intended envoy to Lebanon, Mossaad Boulos, has explicitly stated Trump's intention to renew peace initiatives with Saudi Arabia. The plan includes ending the Lebanon conflict as part of a broader regional development strategy, building on Amos Hochstein's framework, which Trump wants the Biden administration to complete before his potential return to office.

This Saudi-centric approach involves sidelining Qatar, a shift that began under Blinken. CNN Arabic recently reported that Blinken demanded Qatar expel Hamas leadership from Doha if no hostage deal materializes.

Jerusalem and Temple Mount   

Trump's original plan included an "Islamic Wisaya" (patronage) arrangement for the Temple Mount, creating a new status quo with Saudi involvement. While problematic for both the Palestinian Authority and Jordan, as it would end hopes for a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem and Jordan's exclusive Muslim patronage, it would preserve Israeli sovereignty over the unified city – a potential win for Israel complicated by coalition commitments to the religious right.

Immediate Challenges

Netanyahu likely explained to Trump the importance of achieving a "total victory" to erase the trauma of October 7. However, sources suggest Trump urged Netanyahu to declare victory and end the war before his potential return to office, aligning with his stated goal of ending conflicts.

The Biden administration, meanwhile, appears disinclined to grant Netanyahu a "total victory," potentially forcing war termination through UN Security Council action or humanitarian aid-related pressure.

 Looking Ahead

What could be tremendous diplomatic opportunities for the State of Israel may prove nightmarish for Netanyahu's current coalition. The prime minister faces an increasingly complex balancing act between regional opportunities and domestic political constraints, with Trump's return potentially forcing difficult choices sooner rather than later.

The Saudi foreign minister has already stated that normalization is impossible while Ben-Gvir and Smotrich remain in government, highlighting the practical obstacles to any breakthrough. How Netanyahu navigates these competing pressures could define not only his political future but Israel's regional position for years to come.