Netanyahu's Trump Card: The Complex Reality Behind Israel's Celebration

Donald Trump's return to the White House may not be the blessing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu envisions. While Netanyahu openly celebrates Trump's primary victories, a closer examination reveals potential complications that could undermine Netanyahu's domestic coalition and regional strategy.

The Ghost of Plans Past

The core challenge lies in Trump's unfinished 2020 peace initiative. When Trump unveiled his Middle East peace plan in January 2020, Netanyahu's right-wing supporters initially celebrated what they believed was a green light for Jordan Valley annexation. Their jubilation turned to shock when they realized the plan actually proposed a provisional Palestinian state.

The backlash was immediate. Key settler leaders like David Elhayani abandoned Likud in protest, effectively forcing Netanyahu to distance himself from Trump's initiative. This ultimately contributed to the plan's stagnation before Biden's victory rendered it moot.

The Saudi Equation

Trump's Palestinian proposal was intrinsically linked to a broader vision of Israeli-Saudi normalization, with the Abraham Accords serving as a preliminary step. Unlike the UAE, Saudi Arabia's self-perceived role as a leader of both Arab and Muslim worlds requires tangible progress on the Palestinian issue before any normalization with Israel.

This creates a fundamental tension with Netanyahu's current coalition partners. Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich actively works to prevent any possibility of a Palestinian state, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir reportedly secured commitments regarding Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa compound.

The Temple Mount Complication

Trump's original plan included an "Islamic Wisaya" (patronage) arrangement for the Temple Mount, effectively creating a new status quo with Saudi involvement. While potentially beneficial for Israel's broader interests, this would conflict with Ben-Gvir's base and their aspirations for expanded Jewish presence at the site.

The plan would also diminish Jordan's exclusive Muslim patronage of the site and end Palestinian hopes for East Jerusalem as their capital, though it would preserve Israeli sovereignty over the unified city.

Regional War and Peace

Sources suggest Trump urged Netanyahu to declare victory and end the Gaza operation before his potential return to office, aligning with his stated goal of ending conflicts. In Lebanon, Trump's designated envoy Massad Boulos has already committed to ending hostilities, likely building on the narrow security zone framework approved by Biden.

The Iranian Question

While Netanyahu's office has hinted at potential U.S. support for striking Iranian nuclear facilities, this appears unlikely given Trump's explicit opposition to new military engagements. Trump has consistently stated his intention to avoid additional conflicts, and a confrontation with Iran would represent precisely the type of major military engagement he seeks to prevent.

Looking Ahead

The critical question remains whether Trump will revive his original peace plan. If he does, Netanyahu faces an impossible choice between his right-wing coalition partners and the transformative potential of Saudi normalization. This dilemma encapsulates the broader challenge facing Israeli leadership: balancing ideological commitments against strategic opportunities in a rapidly evolving Middle East.

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister has already stated that normalization is impossible while Ben-Gvir and Smotrich remain in government, highlighting the practical obstacles to any breakthrough. Netanyahu's political survival may ultimately depend on how he navigates these competing pressures in an increasingly complex regional landscape.