# Escalation in the North: On the Brink of War?

The increasing escalation with Hezbollah raises the question of whether Israel and Lebanon are heading towards a full-scale war, possibly even a regional conflict. While I hope I'm not mistaken, barring an uncontrolled deterioration, what we're likely witnessing is an escalation in the exchange of blows that won't cross the threshold into war—a kind of "war in lieu of war."

## Why Not Full-Scale War?

Several factors contribute to this assessment:

1. **Israel's Political Situation**: Netanyahu has no interest in a war at present. His trial, where he is expected to testify, is set to begin in December. From his perspective, a war in December would be preferable to one now.

2. **Hezbollah's Position**: The organization needs time to recover from the blows it has sustained.

3. **U.S. Opposition**: The United States strongly opposes a full-scale war, especially a regional one that could draw in Iran. This opposition is particularly firm during a presidential election season.

## The Netanyahu Factor

The normalization of war timing calculations with Netanyahu's legal proceedings is a price paid for the failure of gatekeepers who lacked the courage to defend minimal norms of reasonableness and threshold conditions for the incapacitation of a prime minister facing such serious bribery trials.

Netanyahu's upcoming trip to the UN General Assembly suggests that despite the spin about "safely" returning northern residents to their homes as a war objective, this spin is likely to share the fate of the spin about returning the hostages. In fact, shifting the war's focus to the north without concluding the war in the south means there won't be a ground incursion into southern Lebanon—a condition for northern residents to return "safely" to their homes—nor will there be a hostage deal tied to ending the war in the south.

## New Hostage Release Proposal

Last week, it was reported that Israel is initiating a new hostage release framework, proposing the release of all hostages in exchange for the evacuation of Sinwar and Hamas leadership from Gaza. The question is why Netanyahu is proposing a new framework after Hamas accepted his original two-phase deal proposal. It's reasonable to assume this is another spin to portray Hamas as refusing, after Netanyahu's original proposal made him appear as the refusers. Generally, every move by Netanyahu should be considered a spin unless proven otherwise.

This raises the question of whether Sinwar and his associates would agree to leave Gaza, and if so, where they would go. The answer lies in what Sinwar wants and who would agree to accept him.

## Sinwar's Dilemma

Does Sinwar want to be a bin Laden figure fighting from the ruins of Gaza as if they were the Palestinians' Tora Bora in a global jihad, or does he want to save his life after failing to ignite an all-front war against Israel?

The Palestinian Authority initially proposed his exit to Algeria at the start of the war, but Algeria refused. This means no Arab state will accept him. The only option might be Turkey, which seems a suitable candidate, especially after Erdogan's call for the entire Arab world to unite in war against Israel. However, as things stand now, the new Israeli proposal appears to be another spin designed to complicate rather than facilitate negotiations, and under these conditions, Sinwar is exempt from making a decision.

## Hezbollah and Iran's Position

After the severe blows it has received, Hezbollah is not capable of going to war, nor is Iran. Iran must first investigate whether the significant breach allowing Israel to penetrate so deeply into Iran begins with Hezbollah.

## U.S. Stance

Apart from election considerations, the damage to President Biden's prestige also influences the strong opposition to a war in Lebanon.

## Conclusion

From every angle, the worsening military situation with Lebanon does not herald a full-scale war. The return of northern residents "safely" to their homes is likely to end up like the "total victory" and the return of "our hostages"—unfulfilled promises.