President Biden wants the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza. This is not a good solution
Date: 19/10/2023 Time: 10:55
By Pinhas Inbari
It is regretful that Israel is abstaining of defining the war target about the day after. who is already thinking about the day after is the United States. President Biden is more than hinting that he wants the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza. This is not a good solution, and in my opinion, Abu Mazen himself does not want to return to Gaza, but in the absence of an Israeli definition of the day after – the return of the PLO to Gaza is a development we will have to deal with down the road.
Why isn’t the PA the solution? Because we see what is happening in the West Bank, when it has Israeli backing and international support. The PA is crumbling not because of Israel, but because of its incapacity. The reason for the disintegration of the PA is that from the outset it did not intend to establish statehood, but to preserve the military spirit in order to fight Israel when the time comes. In the meantime, Israel is being exhausted in international forums and stigmatization And in schools students are taught that they, in their turn, will take the task of full liberation of Palestine into their hands.
What the PLO and Hamas have in common are both refugee organizations, and their area of struggle is not the 1967 borders, but the right of return into Israel. They have a disagreement about the modus operandi — Hamas – a military struggle, a PLO of popular struggle and diplomatic campaign. When Abbas is approached to replace Hamas, he will renew all the old demands that thwarted all rounds of talks with Israel – evacuation of the settlements, including East Jerusalem, and safe passage to Gaza, which will split Israel to two parts. If that happens, the great winner of the war will be Abu Mazen. He is already recognized internationally as the true sovereign of Gaza, and now Israel will bring him in – at least as a legitimate “partner.” He won’t pay anything. It will be Israel that will pay to persuade him to do the obvious thing from his pretensions to be the leader of the Palestinian people.
This result will mean that the picture of victory will be Abu Mazen’s, and I don’t think that’s what Israel want. In order for this not to happen, we must formulate our war goals that will give us, not Abu Mazen, the picture of victory. Whoever comes along and says, OK, not Abu Mazen, there’s Muhammad Dahlan, who is Gazan, and really suddenly Dahlan and his people get up and flood the media. Dahlan doesn’t actually say anything meaningful, and I haven’t heard him condemn Hamas.
What is very serious are the words of Samir Mashharawi, one of the leaders of the Dahlan group. https://youtu.be/Rd_rgZWdjuI He described the events of October 7 as a miracle in every sense of the word. He added that he was in contact with the Egyptians so that they would put their military power against the IDF and not let Israel be the only player in Gaza. Needless to say, when Israel left Dahlan with the responsibility for managing Gush Katif’s successful greenhouses, his people participated in robbing the greenhouses.
They preferred plastic sheets to the high income of unique agricultural exports to international markets that were just waiting for them. Later, when Hamas threw them from the rooftops, their refugees, with Israeli assistance, fled to Ramallah, from where they were also expelled, settling in Cairo and the Gulf. They are not only incompetent, but also have a militia mentality, lacking a state understanding that is Imperative to rehabilitate Gaza. Gaza’s reconstruction is the key to the day after. And this is where the Arab states are supposed to come in. Egypt is the main interested party, which has already developed plans with Yahya Sinwar for Gaza’s economic development, but after Chief of Staff Halevy named him a target for elimination, Egypt needs other partners, and it will take time to find them. Egypt will not give up on Abbas with all the complications associated with his participation.
Egypt has a keen interest in Israel eliminating Hamas’ military power. It is engaged in an exhausting struggle with the Muslim Brotherhood, and Hamas is an ally of the Ikhwani opposition to the regime. Egypt’s problem lies with the current Israeli government. Immediately after the war, she participated in a forum led by Secretary of State Blinken aimed at strengthening cooperation with Israel, the PA and Jordan, which included Israeli gestures in the West Bank. Not only did Israel not do its part, but the hilltop boys increased violence against West Bank villagers- Hawara as example. Egypt is convinced that what really triggers Israel is Smotrich’s doctrine of decisiveness, Jordan shares this concern, and they will demand that President Biden remove this threat from Israel’s hands. Egypt has put its army on standby to advance a breach of the border into Sinai, and Jordan fears that the hill boys will set the West Bank on fire for a similar purpose.
The problem is that Netanyahu will pledge to Biden that he will not allow such scenarios to take place, but will not “instruct” Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to calm the hilltop boys. As long as Israel’s potential partners are not willing to cooperate with it the day after, the problem is bigger than it seems at the moment. It will either accept Abbas’ terms or get stuck in Gaza, two bad options. But it is possible that the key will be found somewhere in the Gazans themselves. What the PA and Hamas media channels do not show us is the rising rage on the Gaza street against Hamas, such as these things. https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/h1kt11zvih
Maybe what needs to be done now is to find out who these forces are, and maybe they will be the address the day after Hamas.
Pinhas Inbari is a veteran Arab affairs correspondent who formerly reported for Israel Radio and Al Hamishmar newspaper, and currently serves as an analyst for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
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