Monday, August 19, 2013

The effects of the Egyptian drama on the Palestinian arena:

The dramatic developments in the Egypt have their immediate effects on the Palestinian arena in both its parts- Gaza and Ramallah. As for Gaza – the effect is obvious: Hamas is perceived by the military command as allied with Moslem Brothers, more so—it is perceived as the factor that militarized the hitherto political party. Hence, As far as the Egyptian military is concerned – Hamas is an enemy. The military declared its intention to outlaw the Moslem Brothers after labeling them as terror organization and Hamas is going to get the same treatment. However, Egypt is not going to close Rafah border crossing because famine in Gaza will not help the military in calming down the internal situation in Egypt and shift the outcry against "Gaza siege" from Israel to herself. But the destruction of the tunnels will continue full speed and inflict heavy losses on the Gaza economy and Hamas source of income.
One may conclude that while Hamas is losing ground- Ramallah wins—but this is not the situation at all- and for surprising reasons. The Economy minister of Ramallah, Shukri Bishara, told yesterday the teachers' trade union that improving the salaries now is not possible because of the terrible economic situation due to the fact that Arab countries did not respect their commitments to aid the Palestinian Authority's budget. http://www.maannews.net/arb/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=621998
One may wonder- how is it that especially now, as the PLO decided to return to the negotiations table with Israel and secretary of state, John Kerry, promised to feed the Palestinian economy with huge investments – Arab states stopped the finance. Well, it looks like there is an Arab decision to spoil the USA policy in the region after they internalized that the USA is fully supporting Moslem Brothers and the Egyptian arena created a bizarre situation where the pro-western countries are comforting the USA. Hence, because Secretary Kerry is so committed to solve the Palestinian problem and so eagerly wish to help the Palestinian budget- the Arab countries will do the opposite.
This can explain also the fact that despite all expectations- Saudi Arabia did not revive its famous initiative for overall peace with Israel. Not Israel is the target here- but the USA.
The second effect relates to the reconciliation efforts between Fatah and Hamas. Until now these efforts were perceived across the region as positive and many parties tried to mediate in order to gain popularity. During Mubarak regime the intelligence boss, Omar Suleiman, linked his fame to those efforts that made him a candidate to presidency. The drama in Egypt turned it completely upside down. Now- as Hamas turned to be defined as "terrorist" together with its Moslem Brothers allies- Ramallah's coming closer to Gaza will stain it in the eyes of the Arab regimes. So, this put final end to the reconciliation saga and face the Palestinians in front of new challenge of frontal clashes similar to those typical to Arab Spring countries- Syria and Egypt.
Until now whenever Hamas wanted to spoil to Ramallah- they launched missiles on Israel… but it looks now that that era has ended because the challenges for Hamas are now on its very legitimacy and the threat for legitimacy is coming from Ramallah and not from Israel.
The main drive for Ramallah now is to be recognized as a state that is the sovereign on Gaza also. Hitting Sderot with missiles is not an answer to this challenge. The answer is twofold- first to subdue Fatah power in Gaza- and threaten Ramallah directly with terror attacks. The environment across the region is inviting such a response to Fatah challenge which is on the very legitimacy of Hamas rule.
This challenge is sharpened now as running elections in the Palestinian Authority is urgent liability for Ramallah legitimacy as well. Hamas is refusing to participate in new elections on the ground that after last elections Hamas Parliament was not given the chance to rule so they do not trust new round of elections. If Fatah decides to run elections in the West Bank only, it will be admission that they gave up Gaza, but if they insist on running elections in both parts- while declaring Gaza as rebel district and counting Gaza votes through the internet or SMS they threaten a cruel crackdown to portions of ethnic cleansing on Fatah in Gaza and even direct terror hits of Hamas in Ramallah.
As far as we know Ramallah's mentality – they will decide nothing and imposing on Hamdallah the mission of establishing new government is indication to this direction.
But there is another problem that may harden PLO positions- it is now obvious to the pro western regimes- and Ramallah included – that the USA is pro Moslem Brothers and once an agreement is reached on 1967 borders- Khaled Mash'al will fulfill a commitment he gave in the past and declare a Hudna – ceasefire- with Israel what will open the door wide to USA and Europe to recognize Hamas.
And indeed after collecting the info about the latest round of negotiations – nothing happened. The parties argued about the settlements constructions- the Palestinians denied that they agreed to approve construction in return for the release of prisoners and rejected Israeli explanations that building inside the settlements blocs does not affect the territorial continuity of future Palestinian state. In last night meeting of the PLO Executive Committee many of the speakers blamed the USA in cheating them about giving them a guarantee that Israel will not build during negotiations.
Also Fatah radicals are demanding Abu Mazen to show them a letter of guarantee he claimed he got from Kerry in this respect- but so far he did not show them any. However, according to my sources, Fatah promised Abu Mazen not to make life difficult to him in coming two months in order to give him a period of time to prove his point.
In the lack of elections' legitimacy, Abu Mazen needs the "peace process" legitimacy. As long he sits with the Israelis- it is OK—the problem is that he sits for the sake of sitting and he is blamed that during sitting the Israelis are building in the settlements.

Sum up- the complications in Egypt complicated the Palestinian situation in both parts – Gaza and Ramallah- in Gaza Hamas is perceived as terror organization and as such any reconciliation efforts are not welcomed now and Hamas and Fatah are even on track of direct collision.
Latest round of negotiations proved to be futile and both sides stick to their positions on settlements construction without any coming closer.